Looks like property prices in China are set to collapse (maybe by up to 50%). How do you think that will affect global trade and financial institutions? Will we be bailing out banks again?

It'll be Gordon Browns fault if the world banking system collapses again - thats how it goes.

I'm more worried for when the London bubble bursts.

Hey up, Dally's out of prozac again. We're DOOOOOOOMED!

Sooner or later this whole credit ponzi scheme is going to pop and it will be worse then 2008 because nothing has changed apart from the debts getting bigger.



I thought it might happen if Scotland voted for independence but fortunately for the markets they voted no.

As a slightly serious answer to the original question, western banks are generally less exposed to the Chinese property market than they were to the US.



Indirectly the exposure is massive if China really falters, due to its knock-on effect on commodity prices and exports. However, it should be borne in mind that China isn't looking at anything like the western definition of a recession - just a slowing in growth.



But given that forecast growth for both 2014 and 2015 is more than 7%, that's still an enormous amount of incremental economic activity.

UK interest rates set to rise to 0.75% according to a friend in the know. That'll be interesting.

Your friend is about as in the know as my goldfish then. I'm no financial expert, and even I know that the inflation figures mean the government can get away with no rate rises for many months, maybe at least a year. And certainly not before the next election.



And you can put your money on that. Or you could, except the bookies have stopped offering odds on an early rise which always seals the deal for me. Why, I can get odds of 500/1 on the next Pope calling himself "Paddy Power", but nothing on an interest rise. The money men of course already did put their money on no rise, which is why sterling took such a hammering.

Interest rate changes have to be announced immediately they're agreed.

He told me to expect it next March.

So when you said "set to rise" you actually meant your mate's guess is as good as anyone's. You can't seriously believe that a decision has been taken in October to increase rates in March?

He sounded pretty confident about it all, to the point of selling a house they rent out pretty sharpish before it rises.



I can only go on what he's said and he moves in much more financial circles than you or I.

Any decision to change interest rates is taken "on the fly", based on the very latest figures available. I don't know if your mate thinks a decision to raise rates in march has been or might even be taken the previous October, but it wasn't, and can't, be. So many things could change. It would be utterly pointless. rates MAY go up in March, or June, or whenever, the point is no decision will be made in advance and so your mate is not "in the know" about some decision secretly made, he's just making an educated guess. Just like any number of financial commentators all of whom know far more about this stuff than me.



Maybe he's just not up to date as until very recently most pundits were predicting an early rise and it is only in the last week or two that things seemingly changed and no rise is now imminent.

If he was the expert you seem to be painting him as then surely he'd be making enough of a profit on renting the house that an interest rate rise would barely trouble him? Now, if he's an amateur and mot making enough profit to cover a rise then he's definitely right to get out now while he's ahead.

I think they currently own 5 properties.

The Chief Economist at The Bank of England has today not just hinted but categorically stated that interest rates should not rise any time soon until earnings and productivity keep pace with inflation, which they are not.



Now its true that its not his decision and that he has no more knowledge of what the committee of thinkers at the BoE will decide each month than I have, or than anyone else has.



Maybe your mate will take the For Sale sign down this weekend.



Most "financial experts" are simply gambling with other peoples money and have no special inside knowledge of anything.

Given that the price of oil is being driven down in a deliberate attempt to hurt the Russian economy I don't think it required any "insider knowledge" to guess interest rates might possibly take a hike.



Cheap oil is a massive influence on spending and spending influences interest rates. Don't believe for one second the Bank of England hasn't been worrying it might need to raise a few fractions.



The fact that they aren't moving doesn't mean it wasn't a halfway decent guess. Cut the guy some slack.

There is a fair chance that interest rates could rise very suddenly and very sharply - if and when investors fear that we are struggling to control our deficit and debt.

Another month, another press release Quote The Bank of England has held UK interest rates at a record low of 0.5% for another month. It has also decided not to extend its quantitative easing programme, designed to stimulate lending in the economy, beyond the £375bn already spent. The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has held rates at 0.5% since March 2009 in a bid to help economic recovery. Rates were expected to rise early next year, but economists think this will be pushed back due to recent poor news. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29929499 '"

Another month, another press release Quote The Bank of England has held UK interest rates at a record low of 0.5% for another month. It has also decided not to extend its quantitative easing programme, designed to stimulate lending in the economy, beyond the £375bn already spent. The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has held rates at 0.5% since March 2009 in a bid to help economic recovery. Rates were expected to rise early next year, but economists think this will be pushed back due to recent poor news. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29929499 '"

Article that may be of interst to LeighGionaire: uk.businessinsider.com/adair-tur ... bt-2014-10

Article that may be of interst to LeighGionaire: uk.businessinsider.com/adair-tur ... bt-2014-10