You have and always have had a very distorted view on matters. Obama by his own admission couldn't get a policy through the congress/senate which was dominated by Republicans - he was scandal free mainly because of his own political impotence. The Iran deal should never have been in the format that it was but there you go. He repeatedly promised to get rid of Guantanamo its still there, his record on expelling illegals was extreme - made Donald look soft. The economy grew - difficult to avoid that given the state it was in when he took over - given his inability to get anything done it is difficult to correlate the two.

So what you are saying with no actual evidence is that Obama was only scandal free because of the republicans. I suppose you have examples of where they blocked scandalous actions unlike Trump who appears to create one every day.

What would normally be a major news story under Trump it is just a Thursday.

No I'm not saying that - he was a very good man very human being - sadly largely ineffective as a president. I agree about Donald - he thinks he is running his own company and he say/do what he wants - unfortunately running a country is different from a company.

Of course Obama less effective after 2010 when his party lost the majority; that's the nature of partisan American politics as it stands and is where Trump is now. It's a massive straw man.



What the Obama administration did in the two years they had power though contrast quite brutally with Trump's first two years:



Passed the Recovery Act which stimulated the economy, saved General Motors amongst many others, prevented an all-out depression and laid the foundations for the strongest period of continuous economic growth in modern American history.

Passed the largest tax cuts for working Americans in history

Gave millions of poorer Americans the chance of healthcare with the Affordable Care Act, following which the number of Americans without health coverage fell by around 25 million people

Signed Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform to prevent a repeat of the circumstances that led to the Great Recession

The New START treaty cut nuclear weapons in Russia and the USA

Repealed Don't Ask, Don't Tell to remove the slander that only some Americans were patriotic or brave enough to serve in the military



In contrast Trump did a big tax cut for wealthy people and corporations, most of which disappeared as stock buy-backs. His biggest success is in not messing up the Obama Economy, which is something I suppose.

Well Super Tuesday coming up this week ,with a third of overall pledged delegates up for grabs.



Probably shake the Democrat field down to three or four.





Biden will be lifted after gaining SC, but Sanders and Warren didn’t put much effort into it.

Probably because when they don't get a primary challenge (which Bush snr did) they can spend this time fundraising and not spending, meanwhile the other side are burning up funds fighting their own primary.

Steyer and Buttegieg gone, surely Klobuchar is going to drop out soon. The only one left with a chance is Warren, who may be able to attract supporters from both Bernie and Biden.



Bloomberg can stay in as a sideshow as long as he has money to burn on it.



Biden does have some natural advantages in terms of his natural base, but his problem is he is so poor in these debates. He is basically a poor man's Hilary.

Interesting point raised on the latest fivethirtyeight podcast - if coronavirus spreads, what are the risks of one of the candidates getting it?



Because of their age, the health and fitness to be President will be a massive factor for either Biden or especially Bernie. Having coronavirus would ruin their campaign.



Also they will be out shaking loads of peoples hands, in large rallies.

Let us not forget that Trump is also north of 70 even if his tan and hair? try to suggest otherwise.

Do you still think Bernie is going to be challenging Trump?

No I think it's a near certainty that Biden has got the nomination now.



The others all dropping out and endorsing Biden before Super Tuesday made the difference.



I think this plays well into Trump's hands. Biden is the easiest opponent for him because he can use the same model that worked against Hilary:



- "Establishment swamp" - Biden has had the same establishment forces rallying behind him that Hilary had to ensure that he got the nomination. Neither really had a groundswell grass roots movement.



- "Corruption" - Hunter Biden will be the "Hilary's emails" of the campaign.



Hilary was at least a confident debater. Biden is a bumbler who will look weak in comparison to Trump. He also possesses some of Trump's unpleasant characteristics (arrogant, smug, sexist, rude) without going all out and owning it like Trump does.



However it's not in the bag for Trump because coronavirus and the likely economic impacts will remove Trump's ace in the pack about "booming economy" and also expose him as a weak leader, if it hits the US medical system hard and he is seen to be ineffective in dealing with it and instead using the crisis to just blame others. It's easy for people to rally behind Trump's attacks on others when people aren't experiencing the effects themselves, but coronavirus impacts are going to hit his base too.



Trump doesn't have a broad coalition of voters, his strategy is on holding his base firm and making sure the electoral college holds for him, so he's vulnerable to a small degradation of that base. Biden has a chance of beating him no matter how unimpressive he is, as just the "anyone but Trump" candidate.



One thing which will be decisive will be whether Bernie's supporters actively campaign for Biden (which will be hard for them to accept) or whether some just don't bother turning out and voting - I think this hit Hilary.



If Biden becomes President though, I expect him to be a very unimpressive President and an easy target for Republican media. The best thing he could do is see himself as a one term President and intend to hand over the reins to one of the younger ones next time. So the choice of running mate will be quite interesting.

I think your synopsis is spot on - Biden is unimpressive as a potential leader - I find it incredible that there aren't better candidates in the whole of the US. Trump should be an easy target - but then the Tories should have been a slam dunk for Labour - look what happened