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| Quote The Devil's Advocate="The Devil's Advocate"Ah yes, that old chestnut, what is short term, two years, five years, twenty years?'"
I've posted this before, but worth repeating. At the start of the year I met a representative of several Chinese billionaires keen to invest in the UK - infrastructure, energy, property, he was exploring all sorts of options.
Seems the Chinese are supremely confident of the UK being in a strong and positive position within a 3-7 year timeframe. He even gave me figures: their analysts forecast a dip of up to 10% at most, followed by recovery of up to 20%. In his words, "if they're not guaranteed a return of at least 5-10% on their investment, whatever the timeframe, they won't touch it".
We should never have been in the situation we ended up in. Extricating ourselves won't be painless but it'll be worth it. Meanwhile mainland Europe is in the sh*t in a big way.
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| Quote Cronus="Cronus"I've posted this before, but worth repeating. At the start of the year I met a representative of several Chinese billionaires keen to invest in the UK - infrastructure, energy, property, he was exploring all sorts of options.
Seems the Chinese are supremely confident of the UK being in a strong and positive position within a 3-7 year timeframe. He even gave me figures: their analysts forecast a dip of up to 10% at most, followed by recovery of up to 20%. In his words, "if they're not guaranteed a return of at least 5-10% on their investment, whatever the timeframe, they won't touch it".
We should never have been in the situation we ended up in. Extricating ourselves won't be painless but it'll be worth it. Meanwhile mainland Europe is in the sh*t in a big way.'"
Is this the same type of investment that we currently have from French companies like EDF, investing heavily, for a guaranteed return on what should be government investment in our future energy needs.
With the Chinese, it really does depend on what sort of investment they are planning to make.
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| Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.
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| Quote wrencat1873="wrencat1873"Is this the same type of investment that we currently have from French companies like EDF, investing heavily, for a guaranteed return on what should be government investment in our future energy needs.
With the Chinese, it really does depend on what sort of investment they are planning to make.'"
Indeed - the Tories don't support state owned industry - unless it's a foreign state, in which case they can fill their boots and enrich themselves with profits that could be reinvested, or go to the exchequer.
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| Quote bren2k="bren2k"Indeed - the Tories don't support state owned industry - unless it's a foreign state, in which case they can fill their boots and enrich themselves with profits that could be reinvested, or go to the exchequer.'"
And protect the humble millions from inflation busting price rises (despite May's promises of a cap on energy bills  ) and re invest in said utilities, instead of lining some Chinese of French billionaire's pockets.
Competition in the utilities markets in pure fallacy and we all fell for it.
25 years on we're all still waiting fro prices to come tumbling down, due to increased "competition".
Instead, we've jumped into bed with EDF, promising them a price for their electricity that will make May blush (although she will be long gone by then), instead of investing in our own energy generation.
I wonder how many government ministers get a sweetener for such deals ?
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| Quote wrencat1873="wrencat1873"I wonder how many government ministers get a sweetener for such deals ?'"
Brexit moron in chief David Davis certainly did ok out of it.
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| Quote bren2k="bren2k"Brexit moron in chief David Davis certainly did ok out of it.'"
If he's been put in charge to stonewall the Europeans, he's doing a fine job.
It was also a joy to see May arranging a post brexit deal with the Japanese, surprisingly similar to the arrangement they've already sorted with the E.U.
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| Quote The Devil's Advocate="The Devil's Advocate"If he's been put in charge to stonewall the Europeans, he's doing a fine job.'"
Careful now, you're naively in danger of believing the BBC & Channel 4, in that the Brits are a shambles and the noble Germanics of the EU don't play negotiating games.
Whereas in fact the typical stalemate of an inflexible 27-country quagmire vs 1 country rears its head again. Unsubstantiated and unreasonable EU 'exit bill' demands certainly don't help.
Quote The Devil's AdvocateIt was also a joy to see May arranging a post brexit deal with the Japanese, surprisingly similar to the arrangement they've already sorted with the E.U.'"
I believe that was entirely the intention.
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| Quote Cronus="Cronus"Careful now, you're naively in danger of believing the BBC & Channel 4, in that the Brits are a shambles and the noble Germanics of the EU don't play negotiating games.
Whereas in fact the typical stalemate of an inflexible 27-country quagmire vs 1 country rears its head again. Unsubstantiated and unreasonable EU 'exit bill' demands certainly don't help.'"
I don't give two hoots what any news channel tries to feed me, same as I give no credence to you stating "facts".
Prior to the election the Tories were hell bent on a "hard" brexit, then after they received a bloody nose their stance appeared to soften. But it now appears to me that, in order to achieve their original objective Davis & his acolytes have no intention of negotiating & hey presto their original aim is achieved.
Quote Cronus="Cronus"I believe that was entirely the intention.'"
What, to broker a deal similar to what we'd have got anyway?
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| Quote The Devil's Advocate="The Devil's Advocate"I don't give two hoots what any news channel tries to feed me, same as I give no credence to you stating "facts".'"
Of course, you get your information from...where exactly?
Quote The Devil's AdvocatePrior to the election the Tories were hell bent on a "hard" brexit, then after they received a bloody nose their stance appeared to soften. But it now appears to me that, in order to achieve their original objective Davis & his acolytes have no intention of negotiating & hey presto their original aim is achieved. '"
Firstly, using the term 'hard Brexit' demonstrates that despite your statement above, you've soaked up plenty from the news channels. There is no 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit - there is only whatever the final agreement turns out to be. Fact is, we're leaving the EU, which means leaving the Customs Union and Single Market, despite the hot air still belching forth from certain idiotic politicians.
Davis 'has no intention of negotiating'? Do you really believe that rubbish?
Barnier was always going to talk the UK position down - he's been given an inflexible mandate and is trying to strengthen his position. He may not like the UK's opening position but that's how negotiations go. You'd rather the UK rolled over and gave in to their every demand? You must be a Corbyn supporter.
Quote The Devil's AdvocateWhat, to broker a deal similar to what we'd have got anyway?'"
[url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/31/theresa-may-secures-japanese-pledge-on-post-brexit-trade-dealWell, yes.[/url
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| Quote Cronus="Cronus"Of course, you get your information from...where exactly?
Firstly, using the term 'hard Brexit' demonstrates that despite your statement above, you've soaked up plenty from the news channels. There is no 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit - there is only whatever the final agreement turns out to be. Fact is, we're leaving the EU, which means leaving the Customs Union and Single Market, despite the hot air still belching forth from certain idiotic politicians.
Davis 'has no intention of negotiating'? Do you really believe that rubbish?
Barnier was always going to talk the UK position down - he's been given an inflexible mandate and is trying to strengthen his position. He may not like the UK's opening position but that's how negotiations go. You'd rather the UK rolled over and gave in to their every demand? You must be a Corbyn supporter.
[url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/31/theresa-may-secures-japanese-pledge-on-post-brexit-trade-dealWell, yes.[/url'"
And how do you think our negotiations are progressing ?
It still looks like time is advancing far quicker than the negotiations, especially with the EU27 not willing to budge until our "divorce" settlement figure is agreed, which the UK is trying desperately to leave until later.
It's all a long way from the "leave" campaigns rhetoric and it still seems clear that we will have some additional costs on our exports to the EU, which, although this is a 2 way street and there may well be tariffs in the opposite direction, it still seems somewhat different to the "plan" (assuming that there ever was a plan).
Whilst we may be able to achieve some cheaper imports from outside the EU, assuming that we can negotiate trade agreements with the likes of India and China, the major issue is where we plan to sell the products that we produce.
Our largest and closest market is always going to be the EU and even if we could reduce some of our costs on certain products they sure as hell wont allow the UK to "dump" cheap goods in the Eurozone.
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| The main battles have not started yet, so expect the political temperature to rise in the coming months. What's depressing is some of the bbc and left wing journalists taking the side of barnier and his cohorts. They plainly want to see us fail so they can gleefully point out they were right. Never mind that the damage that may occur to this country. As for the Labour Party it's veiws change on a day to day basis. So not much chance of support from them, the main purpose of corbyn is to bring down the government by any means possible. If that means destroying the country so be it. So far Davis has conducted negotiations in a fit and proper manner. When confronted with the demand of billions he has asked for a cost breakdown something barnier seems reluctant to provide. Also the demands totals seem to change on a day to day basis.
Unfortunately both main political parties are deeply divided on the main issues. I note that some on the Labour Party are indicating that we can stay in the customs union. This if we keep up with our annual payment. Stuff and nonsense the Americans sell millions to the ecc without paying tarrifs or any other fees. Why should we be expected to pay.
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| Quote wrencat1873="wrencat1873"And how do you think our negotiations are progressing ?
It still looks like time is advancing far quicker than the negotiations, especially with the EU27 not willing to budge until our "divorce" settlement figure is agreed, which the UK is trying desperately to leave until later.
It's all a long way from the "leave" campaigns rhetoric and it still seems clear that we will have some additional costs on our exports to the EU, which, although this is a 2 way street and there may well be tariffs in the opposite direction, it still seems somewhat different to the "plan" (assuming that there ever was a plan).
Whilst we may be able to achieve some cheaper imports from outside the EU, assuming that we can negotiate trade agreements with the likes of India and China, the major issue is where we plan to sell the products that we produce.
Our largest and closest market is always going to be the EU and even if we could reduce some of our costs on certain products they sure as hell wont allow the UK to "dump" cheap goods in the Eurozone.'"
Could you please explain to me why tarrifs should be invoked. Clearly it's in everybody's best interest to trade freely especially so from the ecc side, seeing as they sell more to us than we sell to them.
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| Quote Cronus="Cronus"Of course, you get your information from...where exactly?'"
Not from Tory H.Q.
Quote Cronus="Cronus"Firstly, using the term 'hard Brexit' demonstrates that despite your statement above, you've soaked up plenty from the news channels. There is no 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit - there is only whatever the final agreement turns out to be. Fact is, we're leaving the EU, which means leaving the Customs Union and Single Market, despite the hot air still belching forth from certain idiotic politicians.'"
There you go stating facts again, with a caveat that politicians with a differing view to you are idiots.
Quote Cronus="Cronus"Barnier was always going to talk the UK position down - he's been given an inflexible mandate and is trying to strengthen his position. He may not like the UK's opening position but that's how negotiations go. You'd rather the UK rolled over and gave in to their every demand? You must be a Corbyn supporter.
'"
Inflexible mandate, whereas Davis's is so elastic isn't it?
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| Quote Backwoodsman="Backwoodsman"Could you please explain to me why tarrifs should be invoked. Clearly it's in everybody's best interest to trade freely especially so from the ecc side, seeing as they sell more to us than we sell to them.'"
As with pretty much all other nations, the EU will wish to "protect is member nations".
Just about everything coming into the EU currently attracts a tariff and that isn't going to change anytime soon and just because the UK were former members wont give them an exclusive arrangement.
There is just no way that we will be allowed to trade freely with the EU from outside, that would be "having our cake and eating it" and with all the noises coming out at the moment, we are more likely to leave with a bloody nose than get off scot free.
What message would it send out if any member could leave without penalty ??
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| Quote Backwoodsman="Backwoodsman"Never mind that the damage that may occur to this country.'"
Which ironically, appears to be the mantra of the death cult that has grown out of the Brexit obsessives; in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, they are determined that somehow, one day, we'll be... ok.
The sadness for me is that with May's slow demise, Labour are not seizing the opportunity to pledge to end the madness; Corbyn has changed his mind on other issues and could on this - but whilst politicians of all stripes know that it will be a disaster, none with a serious chance at power have the bottle to say so.
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| Just a point, leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving the customs union or single market. Norway is in both and isn't an EU member.
The "Norwegian model" was talked up by Farage and co during the referendum campaign. Now it seems it suddenly isn't Brexit enough for some - they kept that quiet before.
If we come out in 2019 with no deal the effect on the economy will be massive for decades to come. Trade agreements take a long time to negotiate, it's not a simple process and we've not got anyone with recent experience of making them.
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| Quote Bullseye="Bullseye"Just a point, leaving the EU doesn't mean leaving the customs union or single market.'"
And yet Mrs May looked right down a camera the other day and said it wasn't possible to be in the customs union without being a member of the EU.
Barnier said at the weekend that the British public hadn't been properly informed about the consequences of leaving the EU - that was an understatement of the highest order; it goes much further than being uninformed - we've been outright deceived.
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| I'm still of the opinion that another referendum needs to be held before we leave the EU.
The original referendum last year was an absolute farce from both campaigns, built on fear and lies. Surely, once we learn what the actuals facts are & what a post-Brexit UK will look like, we should vote on that, it's simply too important.
Of course, there are some who no matter what will vote Remain or Brexit, regardless of the costs, but over a year on from the vote and most of my friends/peers still don't know what a post-Brexit UK will look like (nor do they think the existing relationship with the EU is a perfect one). I reckon this is similar for a large proportion of the electorate.
Right now it does seem like a small proportion of Brexit extremists are getting their way, at the expense of everyone else. I call them extremists because they're happily pursuing their ideology, regardless of the cost to themselves & others.
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| Quote DGM="DGM"I'm still of the opinion that another referendum needs to be held before we leave the EU.
The original referendum last year was an absolute farce from both campaigns, built on fear and lies. Surely, once we learn what the actuals facts are & what a post-Brexit UK will look like, we should vote on that, it's simply too important.
Of course, there are some who no matter what will vote Remain or Brexit, regardless of the costs, but over a year on from the vote and most of my friends/peers still don't know what a post-Brexit UK will look like (nor do they think the existing relationship with the EU is a perfect one). I reckon this is similar for a large proportion of the electorate.
Right now it does seem like a small proportion of Brexit extremists are getting their way, at the expense of everyone else. I call them extremists because they're happily pursuing their ideology, regardless of the cost to themselves & others.'"
I think much of the problem with the Brexit referendum was that it wasn't split across party lines and therefore there will be no accountability if things go pear shaped.
Even the Tories, who are now "trusted" to see this thing through are split more or less down the middle, which is why we had the referendum in the first place.
You're absolutely right that NO ONE knows what post Brexit UK will be like, how could they.
It still seems that even the optimist's have to keep their fingers crosses when talking about it and the most positive aspect is that we will move away from control by Brussels, which may be ok but, we actually dont know.
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| I voted to remain but having viewed the latest major breach of ecc laws by macron and merkel I am starting to change my mind. Macron has taken a French ship yard into government ownership to prevent a takeover by an Italian ship yard.
The ecc has propped up some bankrupt Italian banks. Then merkel having invited over million asylum seekers into Germany now wants to offfload some of them to eastern block states. Ecc laws quite clearly state asylum must be processed in the first country in which the asylum seeker arrives.
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| Quote bren2k="bren2k"And yet Mrs May looked right down a camera the other day and said it wasn't possible to be in the customs union without being a member of the EU.
Barnier said at the weekend that the British public hadn't been properly informed about the consequences of leaving the EU - that was an understatement of the highest order; it goes much further than being uninformed - we've been outright deceived.'"
If you can't see from the EU's actions and words, post-Brexit vote that we are better out than in you have a problem. Their dictatorial arrogance is a glimpse of an horrific future if the EU continues as is. Barnier is just trying to circumvent politicians to get the population uneasy. What are these consequences? WTO tariffs - so what, we had them before and we have a trade deficit with the EU? Self-determination? Freedom? A Brexit 'bill' - when the treaty explicitly states there should be one?
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| Quote Backwoodsman="Backwoodsman"The main battles have not started yet, so expect the political temperature to rise in the coming months. What's depressing is some of the bbc and left wing journalists taking the side of barnier and his cohorts. They plainly want to see us fail so they can gleefully point out they were right. Never mind that the damage that may occur to this country. As for the Labour Party it's veiws change on a day to day basis. So not much chance of support from them, the main purpose of corbyn is to bring down the government by any means possible. If that means destroying the country so be it. So far Davis has conducted negotiations in a fit and proper manner. When confronted with the demand of billions he has asked for a cost breakdown something barnier seems reluctant to provide. Also the demands totals seem to change on a day to day basis.
Unfortunately both main political parties are deeply divided on the main issues. I note that some on the Labour Party are indicating that we can stay in the customs union. This if we keep up with our annual payment. Stuff and nonsense the Americans sell millions to the ecc without paying tarrifs or any other fees. Why should we be expected to pay.'"
Absolutely correct. The TV news outlets almost without fail are support anti-UK, pro-EU, pro-mass immigration agendas contrary to the result of the referendum.
Today we see a draft civil service proposal for immigration controls 'leaked' and the BBC and Channel 4 are all over it, despite this being PRECISELY what we voted for. The sooner we tighten controls the better - meanwhile millions from Eastern and Southern Europe (not to mention Africa and the Middle East) continue to flood into France, Germany, Belgium, Holland and parts of Scandinavia. Because that was always going to be the shambolic result of freedom of movement and only an utter idiot is unable to see that.
Barnier and his arrogant largely Germanic buddies running the EU really are in the sh*t. Even if they wanted to, they couldn't allow themselves to be seen to admit their experiment is a disaster. Similarly, almost all of my German colleagues hate Merkel for what she's done to their country (don't underestimate the terrible impact mass immigration is having) - yet they'll probably still vote for her. Classic German stubbornness.
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| Quote Cronus="Cronus"Absolutely correct. The TV news outlets almost without fail are support anti-UK, pro-EU, pro-mass immigration agendas contrary to the result of the referendum.
Today we see a draft civil service proposal for immigration controls 'leaked' and the BBC and Channel 4 are all over it, despite this being PRECISELY what we voted for. The sooner we tighten controls the better - meanwhile millions from Eastern and Southern Europe (not to mention Africa and the Middle East) continue to flood into France, Germany, Belgium, Holland and parts of Scandinavia. Because that was always going to be the shambolic result of freedom of movement and only an utter idiot is unable to see that.
Barnier and his arrogant largely Germanic buddies running the EU really are in the sh*t. Even if they wanted to, they couldn't allow themselves to be seen to admit their experiment is a disaster. Similarly, almost all of my German colleagues hate Merkel for what she's done to their country (don't underestimate the terrible impact mass immigration is having) - yet they'll probably still vote for her. Classic German stubbornness.'"
So, what you would like to see is, pro Brexit reporting to justify the decision of the 51% of the people who bothered to vote to "leave".
That wont make it right, will it ?
There is no doubt that the "free movement" experiment has failed and this issue still needs dealing with, although, despite some of the current "posturing" we still dont know what the UK will actually agree to and it's worth remembering that "we" have sacrificed our own rights to free movement in the opposite direction, something taken for granted and given up all too easily. No more retiring to Spain or Cyprus, not to mention the fall in asset value for all those Brits who have properties in the EU.
It does appear that immigration will fall back dramatically and that we may lose some of the influence of the EU law makers, although, if we want to continue to supply our manufactured products into the EU, we will still need to produce goods that conform to their standards (slightly ironic).
However, despite some of the "it will be alright", there appears to be a growing consensus that we will all be slightly worse off on the outside, unless, of course, this is just more propaganda ?
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| Quote wrencat1873="wrencat1873"So, what you would like to see is, pro Brexit reporting to justify the decision of the 51% of the people who bothered to vote to "leave".
That wont make it right, will it ?
There is no doubt that the "free movement" experiment has failed and this issue still needs dealing with, although, despite some of the current "posturing" we still dont know what the UK will actually agree to and it's worth remembering that "we" have sacrificed our own rights to free movement in the opposite direction, something taken for granted and given up all too easily. No more retiring to Spain or Cyprus, not to mention the fall in asset value for all those Brits who have properties in the EU.
It does appear that immigration will fall back dramatically and that we may lose some of the influence of the EU law makers, although, if we want to continue to supply our manufactured products into the EU, we will still need to produce goods that conform to their standards (slightly ironic).
However, despite some of the "it will be alright", there appears to be a growing consensus that we will all be slightly worse off on the outside, unless, of course, this is just more propaganda ?'"
I think you will find the British will still be welcomed with open arms in Europe, because a large sector of this population is retired people who spend money in the local economy. One of my pals has spent a large amount of cash building a house in France. I asked him how he found the locals, they like me was the reply,one of them commented that he makes his money in England and spends it in France.
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