Here's a brief summary of how things stand after the Oldham v Workington midweek game:If we beat Dewsbury, we can't finish lower than third. We could be second if Hunslet lose to Workington and we overturn the 60 points points difference disadvantage. Workington now have nothing to play for. They will finish fifth regardless of their result against Hunslet on Sunday.
If we draw or lose to Dewsbury, we will finish fourth if Oldham beat Midlands. A Dons draw would be insufficient to stay ahead of Oldham. A draw would mean we were level on points with Oldham (if they win) but they have the better points difference.
If Oldham draw or lose to Midlands, they will be fourth regardless of our result.
Our chances of finishing third have declined slightly with Oldham beating Workington on Wednesday. Originally my guesses were Dons second: 2%, Dons third: 51%: Dons fourth 47%.
I reckon we've got a 40% chance of beating Dewsbury. This would probably equate to bookies' odds of 5/4 or 11/8 as they would have an over-round book in their favour. Oldham must be classed as a 33/1 chance to slip up against Midlands. Combining the two, I'm thinking our chance of finishing third is 44%, with fourth place now the favourite at 54%. Our chances of finishing second haven't altered.
Where's ya money?