tigertot wrote:They don't even know, yet, how the stuff was administered, so how the hell they know who did it is beyond belief. I think we may well never know for certain. Not for a generation at least.
Just because we haven't been told, doesn't mean they don't know, or have some idea. As it happens you're probably correct that they don't know just yet. Administering it is a major challenge in itself, it would need a very specialist container and the precursors would possibly need to be mixed beforehand, requiring further specialist equipment and expert handling. The risks to the handler are also considerable, especially at the point of administering the agent. So how did they transport it, prepare it and administer it? Certainly not with stuff you can get at B&Q and not a job for amateurs.
Quote:What I know or think from what I have heard & read;
Novichok was developed in the former USSR (not Russia as such) in the 70s. It has never been used by USSR/Russia.
Others may have synthesised it & developed it further. Porton Down wouldn't have been able to identify it so quickly otherwise. It can apparently be relatively easily synthesised in a standard laboratory, so the assertion it must be a nation state is cobblers.
I don't think Putin is involved (nor do any of the academic or military experts I have heard) though I think the most likely explanation is that agents allied to Putin who can act with impunity did carry it out or arranged it.
They were created in Shikhany, Russia according to Vil Mirzayanov, one of the original creators - although other sites have been involved in their production and the production of precursors.
Yes, Iranian scientists - in conjunction with the OPCW - synthesised 5 Novichok agents on a micro-scale a few years ago. They already knew the structures from Mirzayanov, which would allow scientists to identify mass, IR/UV properties, nuclear magnetic resonance and other properties. In other words: Porton Down don't need a pre-existing physical sample to identify it. By taking fluid from the victim's spinal cords, together with skin and any other samples, and isolating the acetylcholinesterase enzyme to which the nerve agent bonds, they can identify the structure of the agent.
It's certainly not the case that any bedroom scientist can create Novichok. It would need an expert scientist with the correct specialist equipment, and the dangers would be enormous - the precursors required to mix and produce Novichok are in themselves mostly lethal (although less so) and illegal. Indeed, Andrei Zheleznyakov, another one of the original scientists, died after a miniscule amount leaked from a rubber tube.
So you don't think Putin is involved? He's the head of the Russian State with his fingers in every pie. It's highly unlikely anyone would launch an attack with such wide-reaching repercussions without his knowledge and blessing. For every pundit you've heard saying it isn't him, there are 20 saying it definitely is. It's also worth considering that beyond the political fall-out, the UN Chemical Weapons Convention has probably been breached.
The evidence is overwhelming. The target is an ex-Soviet paratrooper and GRU officer, convicted of spying for MI6 and sentenced to 13 years in Russia, later released as part of a spy swap, living in Salisbury and continuing to work with MI6. Many of his family have died in suspicious circumstances since he left Russia. The only nation to have produced a Novichok stockpile is Russia. Furthermore the Russian State has a track record of assassinating traitors - Litvinenko being the most famous case, which was also traced directly back to Moscow.
They're sending a number of messages: that traitors to the Motherland can expect a VERY nasty end regardless of 'deals', that Russia isn't scared of showing aggression and treading on Western toes, that they think Brexit UK is isolated and unlikely to receive much support (wrong), that they aren't to be messed with and are willing to use radioactive substances and illegal chemical weapons on foreign soil. A bullet or a knife or poison would be easier but wouldn't achieve all these aims.
Quote:I don't think it is beyond imagination that establishment/right wing forces within this country, not directly linked to Government, saw it as a Falklands moment for an unpopular & clueless PM, or an opportunity to return to a cold war.
Yes, it is. It's such an utterly ludicrous suggestion you get today's special picture.