Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:53 am
vbfg
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 09 2001 Posts: 7594 Location: The People's Republic of Goatistan
LeighGionaire wrote:With this in mind will the millions of working class Brexit voters become the fall guys, blamed for any collapse and castigated for the crimes of the financial elites who flooded the world with toxic debts?
Yes, and you don't even need that in mind. Where the hell else are the newspapers and populists going to turn once blaming immigrants is a busted flush? The rich? LOL.
When my club didn't exist it was still bigger than yours
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:38 pm
LifeLongHKRFan
Player Coach
Joined: Dec 02 2009 Posts: 2150
vbfg wrote:Yes, and you don't even need that in mind. Where the hell else are the newspapers and populists going to turn once blaming immigrants is a busted flush? The rich? LOL.
It'll be the low paid who need handouts to get by day to day and the people on sick or the disabled. Oh wait. Haven't the Tory government already done that?
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:47 pm
Dally
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 14845
The fall in the pound is making inward investment in commercial property, etc much more attractive. When the immediate jitters subside, chances are there will be lots on capital inflows.
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:20 pm
vbfg
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 09 2001 Posts: 7594 Location: The People's Republic of Goatistan
LifeLongHKRFan wrote:It'll be the low paid who need handouts to get by day to day and the people on sick or the disabled. Oh wait. Haven't the Tory government already done that?
You're a cheat pretending to have a bad back. Get a proper job. etc.
When my club didn't exist it was still bigger than yours
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:27 pm
Roy Haggerty
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 5480 Location: London
Dally wrote:The fall in the pound is making inward investment in commercial property, etc much more attractive. When the immediate jitters subside, chances are there will be lots on capital inflows.
That's just not true. In fact, the reverse is true. Property funds are either closing (not allowing investors to withdraw money), or significantly writing down their value.
I'm keeping completely level and calm on these boards, because positions are so entrenched that it takes almost nothing to make people start shouting and insulting. But it is essential for the future of our country that we don't embrace the sort of post-truth irrationality that afflicts, for example, large parts of Republican America, where any evidence which contradicts what they want to believe (for example, Obama's birth certificate), is dismissed as some sort of conspiracy, or simply ignored.
This is no longer a matter of opinion, (albeit expert opinions versus the opinions of liars and frauds during the campaign). What is happening now is fact. Commercial property investment funds are crashing because nobody with money to invest, no institutions, no banks, expects the market to do anything but drop, because Brexit means there will be far less demand for commercial property in the UK - after all, if you're looking to place a new firm or store, then why would you spend cash now on a country which is going to be outside the European market, and which already has far less money to spend because of the devaluation of the pound?
Similarly, one report has the number of job vacancies advertised across a range of recruitment sites as halving in the last two weeks. Halving. That's a massive reduction in recruitment. While committed Brexiteers are still talking about "Project Fear", and promising endless summer (and in one case I know, crowing about how a possible trade deal with New Zealand's 3m consumers is a worthwhile reward for ending free trade with 500m Europeans), the fact is that the economics are already going down the toilet, and we've not even invoked Article 50 yet. So this damage is actually being caused by people taking precautions. Imagine the scale of the carnage when Article 50 is invoked, and fearful precautions become appalled certainty?
Dally wrote:The fall in the pound is making inward investment in commercial property, etc much more attractive. When the immediate jitters subside, chances are there will be lots on capital inflows.
That's just not true. In fact, the reverse is true. Property funds are either closing (not allowing investors to withdraw money), or significantly writing down their value.
I'm keeping completely level and calm on these boards, because positions are so entrenched that it takes almost nothing to make people start shouting and insulting. But it is essential for the future of our country that we don't embrace the sort of post-truth irrationality that afflicts, for example, large parts of Republican America, where any evidence which contradicts what they want to believe (for example, Obama's birth certificate), is dismissed as some sort of conspiracy, or simply ignored.
This is no longer a matter of opinion, (albeit expert opinions versus the opinions of liars and frauds during the campaign). What is happening now is fact. Commercial property investment funds are crashing because nobody with money to invest, no institutions, no banks, expects the market to do anything but drop, because Brexit means there will be far less demand for commercial property in the UK - after all, if you're looking to place a new firm or store, then why would you spend cash now on a country which is going to be outside the European market, and which already has far less money to spend because of the devaluation of the pound?
Similarly, one report has the number of job vacancies advertised across a range of recruitment sites as halving in the last two weeks. Halving. That's a massive reduction in recruitment. While committed Brexiteers are still talking about "Project Fear", and promising endless summer (and in one case I know, crowing about how a possible trade deal with New Zealand's 3m consumers is a worthwhile reward for ending free trade with 500m Europeans), the fact is that the economics are already going down the toilet, and we've not even invoked Article 50 yet. So this damage is actually being caused by people taking precautions. Imagine the scale of the carnage when Article 50 is invoked, and fearful precautions become appalled certainty?
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. "
Last edited by Roy Haggerty on Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:45 pm
billypop
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 3115
Roy Haggerty wrote:That's just not true. In fact, the reverse is true. Property funds are either closing (not allowing investors to withdraw money), or significantly writing down their value.
I'm keeping completely level and calm on these boards, because positions are so entrenched that it takes almost nothing to make people start shouting and insulting. But it is essential for the future of our country that we don't embrace the sort of post-truth irrationality that afflicts, for example, large parts of Republican America, where any evidence which contradicts what they want to believe (for example, Obama's birth certificate), is dismissed as some sort of conspiracy, or simply ignored.
This is not longer a matter of opinion, (albeit expert opinions versus the opinions of liars and frauds during the campaign). What is happening now is fact. Commercial property investment funds are crashing because nobody with money to invest, no institutions, no banks, expects the market to do anything but drop, because Brexit means there will be far less demand for commercial property in the UK - after all, if you're looking to place a new firm or store, then why would you spend cash now on a country which is going to be outside the European market, and which already has far less money to spend because of the devaluation of the pound?
Similarly, one report has the number of job vacancies advertised across a range of recruitment sites as halving in the last two weeks. Halving. That's a massive reduction in recruitment. While committed Brexiteers are still talking about "Project Fear", and promising endless summer (and in one case I know, crowing about how a possible trade deal with New Zealand's 3m consumers is a worthwhile reward for ending free trade with 500m Europeans), the fact is that the economics are already going down the toilet, and we've not even invoked Article 50 yet. So this damage is actually being caused by people taking precautions. Imagine the scale of the carnage when Article 50 is invoked, and fearful precautions become appalled certainty?
I have always respected your opinions. That is a great post.
Roy Haggerty wrote:That's just not true. In fact, the reverse is true. Property funds are either closing (not allowing investors to withdraw money), or significantly writing down their value.
I'm keeping completely level and calm on these boards, because positions are so entrenched that it takes almost nothing to make people start shouting and insulting. But it is essential for the future of our country that we don't embrace the sort of post-truth irrationality that afflicts, for example, large parts of Republican America, where any evidence which contradicts what they want to believe (for example, Obama's birth certificate), is dismissed as some sort of conspiracy, or simply ignored.
This is not longer a matter of opinion, (albeit expert opinions versus the opinions of liars and frauds during the campaign). What is happening now is fact. Commercial property investment funds are crashing because nobody with money to invest, no institutions, no banks, expects the market to do anything but drop, because Brexit means there will be far less demand for commercial property in the UK - after all, if you're looking to place a new firm or store, then why would you spend cash now on a country which is going to be outside the European market, and which already has far less money to spend because of the devaluation of the pound?
Similarly, one report has the number of job vacancies advertised across a range of recruitment sites as halving in the last two weeks. Halving. That's a massive reduction in recruitment. While committed Brexiteers are still talking about "Project Fear", and promising endless summer (and in one case I know, crowing about how a possible trade deal with New Zealand's 3m consumers is a worthwhile reward for ending free trade with 500m Europeans), the fact is that the economics are already going down the toilet, and we've not even invoked Article 50 yet. So this damage is actually being caused by people taking precautions. Imagine the scale of the carnage when Article 50 is invoked, and fearful precautions become appalled certainty?
I have always respected your opinions. That is a great post.
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 6:58 pm
GUBRATS
Club Captain
Joined: Mar 08 2016 Posts: 2418
Roy Haggerty wrote: Similarly, one report has the number of job vacancies advertised across a range of recruitment sites as halving in the last two weeks. Halving. That's a massive reduction in recruitment. While committed Brexiteers are still talking about "Project Fear", and promising endless summer (and in one case I know, crowing about how a possible trade deal with New Zealand's 3m consumers is a worthwhile reward for ending free trade with 500m Europeans), the fact is that the economics are already going down the toilet, and we've not even invoked Article 50 yet. So this damage is actually being caused by people taking precautions. Imagine the scale of the carnage when Article 50 is invoked, and fearful precautions become appalled certainty?
Roy , the consequences of losing free trade to 500m Europeans will be replaced by what though ? , tariffs I assume , and I'd assume Similarily those 500m Europeans will be subject to similar tariffs to deal with us
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 7:19 pm
Roy Haggerty
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 5480 Location: London
No. Not a balance. Something like 50% of our trade is with EU countries, so our exports will become more expensive for customers, while the things we have to import will become even more expensive.
Meanwhile, no EU country has that sort of proportion of trade with us. Essentially, we'll take a hit on 50% of our trade, while nobody else (except Ireland) will take anything close to that sort of hit.
This is why the Brexit line about them being desperate for a trade deal was misleading. Of course their exporters will want a trade deal, but their overall economies won't need a trade deal to anything like the extent we will need one. That's a recipe to be stuffed, as we will be much more desperate than they will.
It's also worth noting that there are lots of firms in EU countries who would like very much to have the business which UK firms currently have. They're going to lobby their governments to put up tariffs so that they can force UK firms out of EU markets.
When I heard the idiots like Farage spinning their simplistic lies about foreigners desperate to give us a better deal, I was appalled. The whole reason we joined in the first place was because our economy was shrivelling outside the free trade area, because the French and German firms competing with UK firms were only to happy to erect the highest barriers possible!
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. "
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 7:48 pm
Dally
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 14845
Roy Haggerty wrote:That's just not true. In fact, the reverse is true. Property funds are either closing (not allowing investors to withdraw money), or significantly writing down their value.
That's why I said when current jitters subside! If the pound stays low there will be good opportunities for overseas investors in a few months time. That said, I think the market peaked a few months back - rents being demanded too high, tenants leaving and new tenants not being found. Also, in London the tower crane test makes it looks like we have peaked - they are everywhere - which normally signals a big market fall.
Roy Haggerty wrote:That's just not true. In fact, the reverse is true. Property funds are either closing (not allowing investors to withdraw money), or significantly writing down their value.
That's why I said when current jitters subside! If the pound stays low there will be good opportunities for overseas investors in a few months time. That said, I think the market peaked a few months back - rents being demanded too high, tenants leaving and new tenants not being found. Also, in London the tower crane test makes it looks like we have peaked - they are everywhere - which normally signals a big market fall.
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 8:08 pm
Dally
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 14845
Roy Haggerty wrote:No. Not a balance. Something like 50% of our trade is with EU countries, so our exports will become more expensive for customers, while the things we have to import will become even more expensive.
Meanwhile, no EU country has that sort of proportion of trade with us. Essentially, we'll take a hit on 50% of our trade, while nobody else (except Ireland) will take anything close to that sort of hit.
This is why the Brexit line about them being desperate for a trade deal was misleading. Of course their exporters will want a trade deal, but their overall economies won't need a trade deal to anything like the extent we will need one. That's a recipe to be stuffed, as we will be much more desperate than they will.
It's also worth noting that there are lots of firms in EU countries who would like very much to have the business which UK firms currently have. They're going to lobby their governments to put up tariffs so that they can force UK firms out of EU markets.
When I heard the idiots like Farage spinning their simplistic lies about foreigners desperate to give us a better deal, I was appalled. The whole reason we joined in the first place was because our economy was shrivelling outside the free trade area, because the French and German firms competing with UK firms were only to happy to erect the highest barriers possible!
About 47% (realistically c. 44%) of UK exports are to EU countries. That proportion was 55% at the turn of the century. It's importance is waning. That's where the opportunity lies, already USA, Canada, China, NZ, Australia etc have made noises about signing free-trade agreements with us when we leave the EU. We have a trade deficit with the EU but a surplus with the rest of the world, which again suggests opportunity. Now is a great time to leave and if we go through with it within 10 years we'll reap rewards. The big issue is not leaving but uncertainty due to the political vacuum. Sooner we negotiate and create certainty the better for the real economy and the markets. Simple as that.
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