Hi Guys

As we almost half way through the first part of the season, thought I would summarise where I think we are (could be very wrong ofc), and what we still need to do to get into the top 4. I know we still not played Sheffield, but we close enough to half way now.

Review of Championship so far

I think is fair to say that the championship is closer than last year (Leigh, Bradford, Sheffield had pretty much sown up 3 of the 4 slots this time last year), which could mean that less points will get you into top 4, but at the same time more teams fighting for those points. I still think we will need 30 points to get in, 28 would be very close, and 34 could get us into top 2. So for me the magic number is 30.

Where we stand

I'm looking here at 2 points. The first is like for like games from last season. Based on that we are currently 8 points better off if you look at like fixtures from last season (Haven, Town away, Fev and Dew Home), and we have not dropped any points in the corresponding games we won last season. So we look in a good position at this time. We also are grinding out results when we need to, which is always a good sign to have, although I would prefer not to have to, and to have games in the bag much earlier on.

If we look at the league table as well, I would say the danger teams around us are Bradford, Leigh, Fev, Fax, Sheffield, Batley. I know Sheffield and Fax a little way of the chase but both teams could go on a winning run at any time so should not be discounted yet. But I would have Sheffield and Batley as outsiders in the teams above, with the other 5 teams fighting for the 4 spots.

What do we need to do

We need to not lose any stupid games. I see Oldham (Home), Haven (Home), Town (Home), Swinton (Away) as must win games, with also Batley (Away), Sheffield (Home) and Dewsbury (Away), Sheffield (Blackpool) as big games to target for wins. That would put us on a nice 32 points which should carry us over the line.

Any additional wins (like Bradford, Leigh at our place) should be targeted if we want top 2, but I think we have the best shot in a while to actually have a positive season and make top 4

Geoff

[quoteI see Oldham (Home), Haven (Home), Town (Home), Swinton (Away) as must win games, with also Batley (Away), Sheffield (Home) and Dewsbury (Away), Sheffield (Blackpool) as big games to target for wins. That would put us on a nice 32 points which should carry us over the line.
][/quote]

agree with your broad assessment - believe we should beat sheffield at home, and have a real chance of beating both Leigh and Bradford (who seem less consistent than last year), we could have beaten both away. Batley away a very distinct possibility - so 34 (minimum), potentially 40+!!!! but then i am an optimist, and this is dependent upon keeping everyone fit, or at least all the key people, and maintaining our defensive strength, which is the major difference from last year - being full-time seems to be counting for much more this season. we keep nilling teams in the second half, batley and haven recent examples

If we can cut our penalties conceded by half I think well win this league , stays as it is and I think well finish 3rd or 4th.

Agreed

cannot disagree, we never seem to learn...........................

Odds and ends that I've noticed. In no order:

1. We've shut out the opposition in 5 second halves out of 10 and conceded just a drop goal in another (I think).

2. We are heavily left-sided in all that we do well. Kear and Barthau move the ball left and Garside, Hellewell and Williams profit. Equally, the left edge defends better too - we are strong defensively but we have been found out on the right edge when (variously) Keyes, Naiqama and Eliab have failed to communicate with other defenders. This seemed to get fixed when Foster got moved to right centre (and that is where I'd play him given that he scores tries from there too).

2a. Given this left-to-right preference, in order to keep the oppo honest, we need a stand-off who is happier moving the ball to the right edge. Eliab is not that man given that he also prefers the left edge (working from the PNG highlights reel here). Leatherbarrow could do it but is too slow IMO. Bussey is filling in at 6 but is much better at 13. Keyes would be my choice if he can be hidden in defence. (Again, this brings me back to having Foster at right centre to protect the stand-off better than Naiqama does).

3. A large proportion of tries at TFSC seem to be scored at the end with the seats. I reckon it slopes that way, like a dodgy snooker table with everything heading towards the "Rhys Williams corner pocket"; my dad insists otherwise.

4. The recruitment for this year has been spot on. Many of the players signed could (and will) do a job in Super League. Very well done to Hendo.

1. We've shut out the opposition in 5 second halves out of 10 and conceded just a drop goal in another (I think). - Yes, i think this highlights our fitness levels and the fact we are full-time team. it didnt seem to work last season, but the pre-season and recruitment seems to have been much better this year and its counting on the pitch

2. We are heavily left-sided in all that we do well. Kear and Barthau move the ball left and Garside, Hellewell and Williams profit. Equally, the left edge defends better too - we are strong defensively but we have been found out on the right edge when (variously) Keyes, Naiqama and Eliab have failed to communicate with other defenders. This seemed to get fixed when Foster got moved to right centre (and that is where I'd play him given that he scores tries from there too). Interesting, think its harsh on eliab, although i didnt see the Featherstone cup game.

2a. Given this left-to-right preference, in order to keep the oppo honest, we need a stand-off who is happier moving the ball to the right edge. Eliab is not that man given that he also prefers the left edge (working from the PNG highlights reel here). Leatherbarrow could do it but is too slow IMO. Bussey is filling in at 6 but is much better at 13. Keyes would be my choice if he can be hidden in defence. (Again, this brings me back to having Foster at right centre to protect the stand-off better than Naiqama does). bussey isnt a stand off. i dont think you can hide anyone in moderns sport, Keyes needs to improve his defence. He has the attacking game. But he is out for at least another 10 weeks or so - so i would look to Elaib there

3. A large proportion of tries at TFSC seem to be scored at the end with the seats. I reckon it slopes that way, like a dodgy snooker table with everything heading towards the "Rhys Williams corner pocket"; my dad insists otherwise.Not sure thats true, but interesting nonetheless

4. The recruitment for this year has been spot on. Many of the players signed could (and will) do a job in Super League. Very well done to Hendo.Absolutely, we have the basis of a decent team and this team is better than probably the side we had in SL for the final three years

Agree with most points made so far, especially that we are grinding out results but would prefer to finish games off a lot earlier, this could also be linked to the penalty count against us, which I do blame on ourselves, in the cup game with our less experienced team we got killed by a clever fev team, our more experienced team in the league doesnt seem to get sucked into this fortunately.
As it stands though I think we are very much on course for 30+ points, but think we badly need to put a good result against bradford and/or leigh to give us confidence going into the middle 8s, that competition will be a step up with no where to hide against 7 other equal/better squads, if we keep playing like we are I see us finishing in the bottom two slots of that comp.

To finish optimistically I'm hoping for a better second half of the season with some more ruthless attacking, the defence has been doign its job but we havent been scoring enough against some of these teams, that will build team confidence even further and we will need form and confidence going into the 8s

Agree, winning is good, winning big is better.....................................................

I think we are a bit one dimensional in attack, everything seems to go down the left.