Joined: May 02 2010 Posts: 1516 Location: Playing League on The Close
Tarquin Fuego wrote:I live in Australia so it's damn hard. I actually went to Wakefiled away in July 2014 when we drew. I have never known an away following so quiet as FC were that day.
I also bought a season pass last season as a sign of support for the Club and Adam.
Anyway using a small type of Money Ball analysis and there are a couple of issues that bother and intrigue me.
1. Where you are after 9 rounds is almost where you finish the season. You can usually hope for an improvement of 1 place + or - and that's it. The notable exceptions are very very rare. Look at our next 5 fixtures and you could guess where we may be after 9 and also 11 games. We could easily be 7th after 9 and 11 games. Take the emotion out of it and you'll probably agree.
2. Defence - like it or no we haven't improved since Radfud took over.
4 games in - points conceded
2014 102 points 2 (H) 2 (A) 2015 82 points 2 H 2 A 2016 87 points 3 H 1 A - also arguably the easiest draw of matches of the last 3 seasons
An average of nearly 22 a game this season and 3 of theose games were at Fortress KC.
I had money on Hull to beat Wigan by 6 or more so I live in hope
Like the Moneyball analogy.
Early days, but adding some more basic facts, compared with last season's regular fixtures we a have won two, lost two but improved our points difference. Salford (H) Won 42-20 (2015: Won 24-20) Cats (A) Won 38-10 (Lost 14-20) Cas (H) Lost 23-31 (Won 40-14) Wigan (H) Lost 25-26 (Lost 12-48)
So same points achieved, but with a points difference of +42 v -12.
I agree that it's too early to call for Radford and have said before that we should have an initial view after Easter Monday, which is 8 games in and is close to tying in with the above forecast.
Out of interest, two key themes of frustration appear to be our defence and the ability to close a game out. Defence can be partly mitigated by attack and so far this season we have demonstrated an improvement in our ability to score tries.
However, the real key to improving our season will be the ability to close out games. Last season we 7 out of our 27 league games finished with a +/- 6 point result, of which Hull won just two of those games. Converting games like those five narrow defeats into victories will be what determines our league position.
Ironically, one of those 5 defeats last season was a 13-12 reverse at Wigan. Whatever you think of Wigan, they have always had the ability to win a game, regardless of their performance and in part, means they usually end up competing for honours at the business end of the season.
Joined: Aug 01 2005 Posts: 5916 Location: Definately not in the Cuddle Crew
ComeOnYouUll wrote:You are lucky to have a job where you can not only listen to the radio but also have the time and ability to post on an internet message board.
My car has this new fangled thing called a radio with bluetooth and mobile has this amazing witchcraft called mobile internet!!!
Joined: Mar 14 2003 Posts: 25960 Location: Back in Hull.
Rugby Raider wrote:Like the Moneyball analogy.
Early days, but adding some more basic facts, compared with last season's regular fixtures we a have won two, lost two but improved our points difference. Salford (H) Won 42-20 (2015: Won 24-20) Cats (A) Won 38-10 (Lost 14-20) Cas (H) Lost 23-31 (Won 40-14) Wigan (H) Lost 25-26 (Lost 12-48)
So same points achieved, but with a points difference of +42 v -12.
I agree that it's too early to call for Radford and have said before that we should have an initial view after Easter Monday, which is 8 games in and is close to tying in with the above forecast.
Out of interest, two key themes of frustration appear to be our defence and the ability to close a game out. Defence can be partly mitigated by attack and so far this season we have demonstrated an improvement in our ability to score tries.
However, the real key to improving our season will be the ability to close out games. Last season we 7 out of our 27 league games finished with a +/- 6 point result, of which Hull won just two of those games. Converting games like those five narrow defeats into victories will be what determines our league position.
Ironically, one of those 5 defeats last season was a 13-12 reverse at Wigan. Whatever you think of Wigan, they have always had the ability to win a game, regardless of their performance and in part, means they usually end up competing for honours at the business end of the season.
The points difference is much bigger as you have quoted the Cup Cas game, the league was much closer.
I said beginning of the season I just wanted to compete and be entertained. Well up to now we've achieved that . disappointed to lose last 2 but could of just as easily won them and a lot of people on here still would be in hiding. I find it amazing all the doom n gloom merchants was quick to state you don't win anything after 2 games but can access were we will finish after 4 games.super league much like the premier league this year with good teams having poor starts and lower teams flying.i thank god some people on here have no influence on our club as the knee jersey reaction to every defeat or victory is embarrassing .
Joined: Jul 15 2005 Posts: 29811 Location: West Yorkshire
Rugby Raider wrote:Like the Moneyball analogy.
Early days, but adding some more basic facts, compared with last season's regular fixtures we a have won two, lost two but improved our points difference. Salford (H) Won 42-20 (2015: Won 24-20) Cats (A) Won 38-10 (Lost 14-20) Cas (H) Lost 23-31 (Won 40-14) Wigan (H) Lost 25-26 (Lost 12-48)
So same points achieved, but with a points difference of +42 v -12.
I agree that it's too early to call for Radford and have said before that we should have an initial view after Easter Monday, which is 8 games in and is close to tying in with the above forecast.
Out of interest, two key themes of frustration appear to be our defence and the ability to close a game out. Defence can be partly mitigated by attack and so far this season we have demonstrated an improvement in our ability to score tries.
However, the real key to improving our season will be the ability to close out games. Last season we 7 out of our 27 league games finished with a +/- 6 point result, of which Hull won just two of those games. Converting games like those five narrow defeats into victories will be what determines our league position.
Ironically, one of those 5 defeats last season was a 13-12 reverse at Wigan. Whatever you think of Wigan, they have always had the ability to win a game, regardless of their performance and in part, means they usually end up competing for honours at the business end of the season.
The next three games are ones we won last year I think.
Joined: Jul 15 2005 Posts: 29811 Location: West Yorkshire
threepennystander wrote:I said beginning of the season I just wanted to compete and be entertained. Well up to now we've achieved that . disappointed to lose last 2 but could of just as easily won them and a lot of people on here still would be in hiding. I find it amazing all the doom n gloom merchants was quick to state you don't win anything after 2 games but can access were we will finish after 4 games.super league much like the premier league this year with good teams having poor starts and lower teams flying.i thank god some people on here have no influence on our club as the knee jersey reaction to every defeat or victory is embarrassing .
Agreed. However the concern on closing out close games is justifiable in the context of the last couple of seasons.
threepennystander wrote:I said beginning of the season I just wanted to compete and be entertained. Well up to now we've achieved that . disappointed to lose last 2 but could of just as easily won them and a lot of people on here still would be in hiding. I find it amazing all the doom n gloom merchants was quick to state you don't win anything after 2 games but can access were we will finish after 4 games.super league much like the premier league this year with good teams having poor starts and lower teams flying.i thank god some people on here have no influence on our club as the knee jersey reaction to every defeat or victory is embarrassing .
Yeh I agree in most parts, no shame in losing to wigan by a point. I just think its got a very familar feel tobthe last few seasons, a lot frustration, inconsistency , and not really making any strides forward. I think it was jake who said it, that if our tactics off not just dominating teams easily with how forwards, then we've no idea, I agree. With the squad we have, no way should we have to just rely on that. Personally think Radford will have to go, and with the right coach we could do something with this squad. Hope im wrong and radford can get the consistency issue sorted and start turning close games into wins
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