Post subject: Re: Anti- Austerity Doctrine Not Working
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:56 pm
The Video Ref
Club Owner
Joined: Feb 29 2004 Posts: 4195
Totally agree reference 'surveys'. It is simply something done to confirm to the bank that the property is worth roughly what is being paid. There is no real benefit to the buyer, who normally pays the survey fee.
The survey on my flat told me it was about 350 years old and in a converted hall in a rural setting. Which I could pretty much tell from the moment I looked at a photo of the place.
Post subject: Re: Anti- Austerity Doctrine Not Working
Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:32 am
Him
International Board Member
Joined: Jun 19 2002 Posts: 14970 Location: Campaigning for a deep attacking line
The Video Ref wrote:Anti-austerity was always a hopeless doctrine.
The idea you can spend your way out of major debt it, quite frankly, ridiculous.
It's a bit like defaulting on a loan and then asking your bank to give you another £5,000.
It isn't ridiculous. To reduce your debt you need a growing economy. To reduce spending when the economy isn't growing or is in poor health is economic illiteracy.
To start with, there are 2 issues here - the economic crash and government debt/deficit levels.
In order to reduce the latter you first have to fix the former.
In order to fix the former (a financial crash) you need to increase public spending in order to make up some of the drop off in consumer spending. Otherwise the economy shrinks, and if you decrease public spending you are actively taking money out of the economy.
That's why the Bank of England was desperately printing money to put INTO the economy.
Then, when the economy is relatively stable and growing you can deal with any debt/deficit issue. Through a combination of progressive tax rises and carefully planned public spending cuts over a long time period.
To cut public spending and increase a consumption tax during the recovery from a financial crash that severely affected consumer spending is economic batshittery.
It's the equivalent of being made redundant and looking for a job but saying you'll cut your costs by selling your car and so make it much harder to find a job.
Post subject: Re: Anti- Austerity Doctrine Not Working
Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:29 am
JerryChicken
International Star
Joined: Jul 09 2012 Posts: 3605 Location: Leeds
Him wrote:*snip*
Just to add to the above, one of the most effective ways of very quickly bucking up a downturn in the economy happened in the early 90s when the (I guess) Tory government set a 100% Corporation Tax relief on capital investment.
That one very simple, easily administered thing led to a huge increase in turnover to any company who supplies anything in the production cycle to any other company, overnight businesses who had clung onto old uneconomical machinery suddenly had an opportunity to replace it with a discount against their next tax bill and of course the businesses that supplied them probably had a corresponding increase in their Corporation Tax on their increased profits the following year, like most taxation issues the dry world of accountancy often does not predict what the knock on effects of policies actually are - we saw this one immediately in a sudden resurgence of sales especially in the spring quarter when the tax year deadline approached and businesses wanted to offset a tax liability for some useful asset investment.
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Post subject: Re: Anti- Austerity Doctrine Not Working
Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:24 am
Charlie Sheen
Player Coach
Joined: Nov 08 2005 Posts: 10530 Location: Leeds
The Video Ref wrote:Anti-austerity was always a hopeless doctrine.
The idea you can spend your way out of major debt it, quite frankly, ridiculous.
It's a bit like defaulting on a loan and then asking your bank to give you another £5,000.
The argument for austerity doesn't make sense in a fragile economy, with huge private debt. If both the public sector, and the private sector are both paying down debt at the same time, then banks stop lending money, and, money stops circulating into the economy causing it to shrink - which is what's happened in Greece.
In the UK, we've just been lucky so far that we've been able to print currency to keep ourselves afloat. In reality, as soon as interest rates rise and, demand for oil catches up with the current over supply and oil prices start to rise again, and the grave reality of our economic situation will hit home and, we'll probably be in a worse position than the Greeks. Currently our debt is 80% of GDP, when you factor in all the private debt its 900%. This won't be repaid, either the bubble bursts, and our living standards plummet, or we write off a huge amount of private debt, and break up the too big to exist banking system and restore some balance and reality to our economy.
King Monkey wrote:Maybe a spell in prison would do Graham good.
Post subject: Re: Anti- Austerity Doctrine Not Working
Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:52 am
Sal Paradise
International Chairman
Joined: Feb 27 2002 Posts: 18060 Location: On the road
Dally wrote:So as he saI'd, the banks lent recklessly to give the punters what they wanted - money that was unlikely to be repaid and unlikely to be supported by security.
complete rubbish there was never a question of mortgage default bringing NR down. They simply couldnt borrow money in the market when banks stopped lending to each other so their revolving credit failed to revolve.
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.
Post subject: Re: Anti- Austerity Doctrine Not Working
Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:38 pm
Him
International Board Member
Joined: Jun 19 2002 Posts: 14970 Location: Campaigning for a deep attacking line
JerryChicken wrote:Just to add to the above, one of the most effective ways of very quickly bucking up a downturn in the economy happened in the early 90s when the (I guess) Tory government set a 100% Corporation Tax relief on capital investment.
That one very simple, easily administered thing led to a huge increase in turnover to any company who supplies anything in the production cycle to any other company, overnight businesses who had clung onto old uneconomical machinery suddenly had an opportunity to replace it with a discount against their next tax bill and of course the businesses that supplied them probably had a corresponding increase in their Corporation Tax on their increased profits the following year, like most taxation issues the dry world of accountancy often does not predict what the knock on effects of policies actually are - we saw this one immediately in a sudden resurgence of sales especially in the spring quarter when the tax year deadline approached and businesses wanted to offset a tax liability for some useful asset investment.
Yep. Reducing taxes like that, VAT, employers NI etc or schemes like the car scrappage scheme are exactly what should happen to help stimulate economic activity.
But of course that increases the deficit and debt.
Post subject: Re: Anti- Austerity Doctrine Not Working
Posted: Sat Jul 18, 2015 6:13 am
cod'ead
International Chairman
Joined: May 25 2002 Posts: 37704 Location: Zummerzet, where the zoider apples grow
The Video Ref wrote:Anti-austerity was always a hopeless doctrine.
The idea you can spend your way out of major debt it, quite frankly, ridiculous.
It's a bit like defaulting on a loan and then asking your bank to give you another £5,000.
Yes because history shows thar such a programme failed so spectacularly post-WW2
Shortly after the global banking crisis, Brown and Darling reduced VAT in an attempt to keep stimulus in the economy. In 2010 the economy was growing and employment was rising again. Unfortunately the bunch of sociopaths who then took charge seized the opportunity to shrink the state in the name of "austerity". This ideological decision led to an immediate reversal of that (albeit sleight) growth, a reduction in spending power and real hardship for those at the bottom of the income scale.
Economic illiteracy at its finest
The older I get, the better I was
Advice is what we seek when we already know the answer - but wish we didn't
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Post subject: Re: Anti- Austerity Doctrine Not Working
Posted: Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:12 am
Dally
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 14845
Sal Paradise wrote:complete rubbish there was never a question of mortgage default bringing NR down. They simply couldnt borrow money in the market when banks stopped lending to each other so their revolving credit failed to revolve.
NR was a simple bank unlike, say, RBS. So, the reason other banks would not lend to them was because they perceived a risk of default.
Post subject: Re: Anti- Austerity Doctrine Not Working
Posted: Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:21 am
Dally
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 14845
cod'ead wrote:Yes because history shows thar such a programme failed so spectacularly post-WW2
The circumstances are completely different to post WW2. Then there was major rebuilding in the UK, Europe, Japan etc - therefore a huge stimulus to the world economy. Given the UK, despite being broke, was such a major producer it was always going to get a big slice of the growth action. Accordingly, your approach made sense. Now the situation is far different and the full flung anti-austerity approach would, I suspect, prove disastrous.
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