DaveO wrote:Exactly. You have to take the whole picture into account. We aren't growing fast enough and the Government can't cut deep enough to deal with the deficit. They keep borrowing more. 0.7% growth means if Osborne could even use his idea of 80% cuts and 20% tax rises to deal with this he'd have to raise something like £6bn in taxes after 2015.
Recovery is gaining momentum according to the British Chamber of Commerce.
"The business lobby group now expects 1.3% growth this year, up from 0.9%. Its forecasts for the next two years were upped to 2.2% and 2.5%."
But you still believe 'it's not going to pick up much before the election'?
DaveO wrote:Exactly. You have to take the whole picture into account. We aren't growing fast enough and the Government can't cut deep enough to deal with the deficit. They keep borrowing more. 0.7% growth means if Osborne could even use his idea of 80% cuts and 20% tax rises to deal with this he'd have to raise something like £6bn in taxes after 2015.
Recovery is gaining momentum according to the British Chamber of Commerce.
"The business lobby group now expects 1.3% growth this year, up from 0.9%. Its forecasts for the next two years were upped to 2.2% and 2.5%."
But you still believe 'it's not going to pick up much before the election'?
Growth will start to happen when people start to spend more money on non-essential items.
People will start to spend more money on non-essential items when their earnings increase or when they feel more confident that their earnings aren't going to be devalued by rising prices, not all of which seem to be reflected in the inflation figures - there is a deal of mysticism in this element of "feel good".
People will only earn more money when overtime and bonuses and *shudder* pay increases become available again, and there is a huge amount of slack to be taken up here.
Fixed term contracts, part time contracts, limited or no hours contracts do not contribute to "feel good" and are a sign that the boot is on the employers foot, when a time returns when an employee can walk out of a job and be confident that they will find better terms elsewhere - THAT is a "feel good" moment.
Until such times return then the economy will recover in exactly the manner that is predicted by the current Governor of the BoE and by his predecessor, that is very slowly and over a period of many years, possibly at least two terms of government office - such is the slack to be taken up.
The lesson to be learned is not to listen to politicians and their flag waving, chest beating party member pleasing antics, but you probably don't want to hear that.
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Joined: Jun 19 2002 Posts: 14970 Location: Campaigning for a deep attacking line
Ajw71 wrote:
Him wrote:The GDP growth trend has been going down since mid 2010, both quarterly and annually. Job vacancies are roughly 20% lower than pre-crash The unemployment rate is roughly 30% higher than pre-crash Government debt to GDP has risen from 80% to 90.7% since the election Government spending has risen by 10% pre-crash, around 7% since the election and 5% in the first 2 quarters of 2013. Business confidence is 3 times lower than at the time of the election. Industrial production growth is 3 times lower than at the time of the election. Bankruptcies are roughly 30% higher than pre crash Personal savings are roughly 40% lower than at the time of the election. The economy is still roughly 15% smaller than it was pre-crash.
Where are you getting these statistics from?!
Through a couple of websites that show the data from official sources.
GDP growth trend - ONS Job vacancies - ONS Unemployment rate - ONS Government debt to GDP - Eurostat Government spending - ONS Business confidence - CBI Industrial production - ONS Bankruptcies - ONS Personal savings - ONS Economy - The World Bank Group
Him wrote:Through a couple of websites that show the data from official sources.
GDP growth trend - ONS Job vacancies - ONS Unemployment rate - ONS Government debt to GDP - Eurostat Government spending - ONS Business confidence - CBI Industrial production - ONS Bankruptcies - ONS Personal savings - ONS Economy - The World Bank Group
ie NOT Wikipedia
You are looking for negatives, hence the reason why you keep referring to pre-crash levels. Since the economy contracted so sharply during this time it's totally unfair to set pre crash levels as a comparison.
But why not have a look at some stats from the last few months. Most of them show a positive trend and with growth increasing hopefully other indicators will take care of themselves.
Growth Trend - well the last 2 quarters have seen growth and we are forecast growth for Q3. so the trend is definitely not down.
Job Vacancies - unemployment is reducing (albeit slowly). The British Chamber of Commerce forecasts unemployment to drop.
Inflation is steady - down last month.
Debt to GDP - well numerous websites reported it was 74.5% last week when the revised growth figures were released
Business Confidence - rising according to Grant Thornton's reports and the CBI
I could go on. Give me some of your ONS stats for the last 6 months and then tell me the economy isn't improving.
Him wrote:Through a couple of websites that show the data from official sources.
GDP growth trend - ONS Job vacancies - ONS Unemployment rate - ONS Government debt to GDP - Eurostat Government spending - ONS Business confidence - CBI Industrial production - ONS Bankruptcies - ONS Personal savings - ONS Economy - The World Bank Group
ie NOT Wikipedia
You are looking for negatives, hence the reason why you keep referring to pre-crash levels. Since the economy contracted so sharply during this time it's totally unfair to set pre crash levels as a comparison.
But why not have a look at some stats from the last few months. Most of them show a positive trend and with growth increasing hopefully other indicators will take care of themselves.
Growth Trend - well the last 2 quarters have seen growth and we are forecast growth for Q3. so the trend is definitely not down.
Job Vacancies - unemployment is reducing (albeit slowly). The British Chamber of Commerce forecasts unemployment to drop.
Inflation is steady - down last month.
Debt to GDP - well numerous websites reported it was 74.5% last week when the revised growth figures were released
Business Confidence - rising according to Grant Thornton's reports and the CBI
Joined: Jun 19 2002 Posts: 14970 Location: Campaigning for a deep attacking line
Ajw71 wrote:You are looking for negatives, hence the reason why you keep referring to pre-crash levels. Since the economy contracted so sharply during this time it's totally unfair to set pre crash levels as a comparison.
But why not have a look at some stats from the last few months. Most of them show a positive trend and with growth increasing hopefully other indicators will take care of themselves.
Growth Trend - well the last 2 quarters have seen growth and we are forecast growth for Q3. so the trend is definitely not down.
Job Vacancies - unemployment is reducing (albeit slowly). The British Chamber of Commerce forecasts unemployment to drop.
Inflation is steady - down last month.
Debt to GDP - well numerous websites reported it was 74.5% last week when the revised growth figures were released
Business Confidence - rising according to Grant Thornton's reports and the CBI
I could go on. Give me some of your ONS stats for the last 6 months and then tell me the economy isn't improving.
I'm sorry I thought you were suggesting things were good and the economy was recovering? It's not. Not yet. 2 quarters is not enough of a time frame to judge the economy on because different quarters of the year have different characteristics. When you add in the 5% increase in government spending during those quarters it's hardly surprising that the economy has grown. Isn't it a shame that when Osborne came in he cut spending, maybe the economy would be well in recovery by now. Now since you can't dispute the facts I posted and you can't dispute the official sources they came from, what ridiculous, Wikipedia-looked-up excuse will you come up with next? Don't try and pretend you know about economics, you're out of your depth on this board.
Ajw71 wrote:You are looking for negatives, hence the reason why you keep referring to pre-crash levels. Since the economy contracted so sharply during this time it's totally unfair to set pre crash levels as a comparison.
But why not have a look at some stats from the last few months. Most of them show a positive trend and with growth increasing hopefully other indicators will take care of themselves.
Growth Trend - well the last 2 quarters have seen growth and we are forecast growth for Q3. so the trend is definitely not down.
Job Vacancies - unemployment is reducing (albeit slowly). The British Chamber of Commerce forecasts unemployment to drop.
Inflation is steady - down last month.
Debt to GDP - well numerous websites reported it was 74.5% last week when the revised growth figures were released
Business Confidence - rising according to Grant Thornton's reports and the CBI
I could go on. Give me some of your ONS stats for the last 6 months and then tell me the economy isn't improving.
I'm sorry I thought you were suggesting things were good and the economy was recovering? It's not. Not yet. 2 quarters is not enough of a time frame to judge the economy on because different quarters of the year have different characteristics. When you add in the 5% increase in government spending during those quarters it's hardly surprising that the economy has grown. Isn't it a shame that when Osborne came in he cut spending, maybe the economy would be well in recovery by now. Now since you can't dispute the facts I posted and you can't dispute the official sources they came from, what ridiculous, Wikipedia-looked-up excuse will you come up with next? Don't try and pretend you know about economics, you're out of your depth on this board.
Him wrote:I'm sorry I thought you were suggesting things were good and the economy was recovering? It's not. Not yet.
But the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney disagree with you and the statistics from the last six months that you won't publish suggest otherwise.
But no, no you are right and the people in the know are in the wrong. Arrogance in the extreme.
Him wrote: Now since you can't dispute the facts I posted and you can't dispute the official sources they came from, what ridiculous, Wikipedia-looked-up excuse will you come up with next?
Erm, I just did.
Him wrote:I'm sorry I thought you were suggesting things were good and the economy was recovering? It's not. Not yet.
But the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney disagree with you and the statistics from the last six months that you won't publish suggest otherwise.
But no, no you are right and the people in the know are in the wrong. Arrogance in the extreme.
Him wrote: Now since you can't dispute the facts I posted and you can't dispute the official sources they came from, what ridiculous, Wikipedia-looked-up excuse will you come up with next?
Ajw71 wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23893789 Recovery is gaining momentum according to the British Chamber of Commerce. "The business lobby group now expects 1.3% growth this year, up from 0.9%. Its forecasts for the next two years were upped to 2.2% and 2.5%." But you still believe 'it's not going to pick up much before the election'?
This quote is your reply to DaveO's post about the deficit and Osborne's failure to do what he said about it and also Osborne's inability to eliminate it in the future using his rule about 80% from cuts and 20% from tax. (n.b. When Osborne talks about the timetable for deficit reduction, the date for its elimination is ALWAYS five years away, it was 5yrs at the time of the election, has been 5 yrs in every one of his predictions since and still remains at 5 yrs-from-now). And your reply is to quote how cheerful the lobby group of the British Chamber of Commerce is about growth? Quite apart from the BCC being about as useful as a chocolate teapot when it comes to economic forecasting, you have missed the point, which is that Osborne wants to eliminate the deficit 80% by cuts (i.e. Cuts, nothing to do with growth) and only 20% by taxation (which is governed by growth) ... hence, your reply to DaveO's post is barely relevant at all to what he said.
In another post, you mention how growth is forecast to increase. I'm assuming you are talking about HM Treasury forecasts which a) Haven't got it right for years b) Have always been revised negatively in the last few years and c) Have even recently predicted +ve growth when we actually got -ve. Can you tell me please, what has changed at the Treasury such that we can now trust their growth forecasts? Or did you mean the British Chambers of Commerce again?
Freedom without Socialism is privilege and injustice. Socialism without freedom is slavery and brutality.
Joined: Jun 19 2002 Posts: 14970 Location: Campaigning for a deep attacking line
Ajw71 wrote:But the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney disagree with you and the statistics from the last six months that you won't publish suggest otherwise.
But no, no you are right and the people in the know are in the wrong. Arrogance in the extreme.
Erm, I just did.
Where in that article do the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney say that the economy is good or in full recovery mode? They don't. What the BCC do say is that the current situation isn't secure. You don't know what you're talking about.
Did you? Which facts I posted do you dispute or which official sources do you dispute then? Or are you so out of your depth you haven't got a clue?
Ajw71 wrote:But the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney disagree with you and the statistics from the last six months that you won't publish suggest otherwise.
But no, no you are right and the people in the know are in the wrong. Arrogance in the extreme.
Erm, I just did.
Where in that article do the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney say that the economy is good or in full recovery mode? They don't. What the BCC do say is that the current situation isn't secure. You don't know what you're talking about.
Did you? Which facts I posted do you dispute or which official sources do you dispute then? Or are you so out of your depth you haven't got a clue?
Him wrote:Where in that article do the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney say that the economy is good or in full recovery mode? They don't. What the BCC do say is that the current situation isn't secure. You don't know what you're talking about.
Did you? Which facts I posted do you dispute or which official sources do you dispute then? Or are you so out of your depth you haven't got a clue?
You said the economy was not recovering.
Well people who have just a tad more knowledge than you disagree. You are wrong. The funny thing is you are so arrogant you genuinely think you are right and they are wrong.
You are embarrassing yourself in your desperate attempts to tory bash.
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Arrogance in the extreme.
