Wire_85 wrote:Mentioned this on the list of rumours. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8529122/elliott-upbeat-on-carlito-claims Its a massive plot and Elliott has played his cards perfect pah i backed that bugger when it ran at aintree this season...wont be having my cash again after that performance. seen paddy power have gone money back in hurricane fly win the champion hurldle!! having some of that...grandouet at 6/1..

Wire_85 wrote:Mentioned this on the list of rumours. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8529122/elliott-upbeat-on-carlito-claims Its a massive plot and Elliott has played his cards perfect pah i backed that bugger when it ran at aintree this season...wont be having my cash again after that performance. seen paddy power have gone money back in hurricane fly win the champion hurldle!! having some of that...grandouet at 6/1..

All part of the master plan to keep its mark low..

Btw that run only came 8 days after its win at Cheltenham, then only 9 lengths behind Unioniste that time giving 8lbs to that and Dynaste.

He only won once from four the season it hacked up on the bit in the Coral Cup, he's been taken to Cheltenham twice to be ready for the fences

haven't posted for a while, but here is something worth thinking over regarding the champ hurdle.

used an online stake calculator for the stakes...

paddy power's champ hurdle offer is upto £100 refund per customer

£37 on zarkandar at 9/2
£32.93 on rock on ruby at 5/1
£29.07 on grandouet at 6/1

if any of them win, it would see a profit of £103.

if fly wins, all three bets refunded.

effectively even money on three horses, with a fourth one there to return the stake if he wins. or even consider backing fly at best odds too, would merely eat a little bit out of the profit if one of the others win, but would still ensure a profit (not just stake back) if fly wins.

haven't decided my bets yet, but its certainly something i'll consider.


cheltenham bets so far

sprinter sacre - works out at 4/11 (range of prices from evens to 1/4, all NRNB concession with various firms except one which is NRFB with chandlers). the evens offered by sportingbet nrnb before the tingle creek really was brilliant.

quevega - 8/11 (two bets, evens NRFB and 1/2 NRNB)

big bucks - evens - NRFB, stake back on the day


dynaste is the short horse i want to take on atm. he has won me plenty this season, but there are a few stats he needs to overcome.

feltham winners have an awful record in the race.
he hasn't run in this calender year
he has had two seasons over hurdles
french breds have a poor record in the race.
he ran two 3m hurdle races around cheltenham and wasnt exactly staying on powerfully either time, although that is a but of a picky thing to hold against him as his stamina seemed fine at kempton on boxing day, and if a horse stays and is still finding plenty at the end of 2 and a half over hurdles then they will usually stay the three over fences without much problem.

there are some gritty irish types entered, and the good ground will see fair improvement from plenty of the home team as well. could be a trait through the novice hurdles and chases; unexpected improvement on a large scale, as a majority of the better novice races this winter have been small fields, moderate pace, heavy ground.

i know that stats aren't a biblical way, but horses such as grands crus, long run, punchestowns and time for rupert have all met at least two of those stats. i know grands crus, punchestowns and time for rupert have been disappointing in open company over fences, but going into the race they all had similar hyped up profiles to dynaste.

dynaste may just prove a cut above - stats do get blown out of the water now and again - we will have to wait and see. i just hope willie decides this is the race for boston bob, he is learning the chasing game all the time and this will be right up his street. only negative for him is his relative lack of chase experience, however, they have said from day one chasing is his game so i'm hoping his natural ability makes up for that. done nothing wrong either chasing him brindisi last year, when ruby arguably gave him plenty to do. the rsa is a brutal race, if i was david pipe i'd send dynaste for the jewson.

Polar venture .5.30.kempton 11/8

like this horse

2nd

poor ride, all he had to do was go straight down the outer... when he did it was too late

two today

big sylv.7.40 wlvs 9/4 probert better get the ride right this time
dewala.5.30.south 10/11

double pays around 6/1

anyone done the sprinter sacre offer???? even money.. £20 limit but surely its a free £20 to spend

need my chelt bets to come in badly, spent a kings ransom in leeds last weekend, with the bulk of it going in wildcats! going in a place like that after a skinful is asking for disaster, decided to turn into charlie sheen for a few hours.

anyone else help themselves to corals sprinter sacre offer? only for a piddling twenty quid, but its seemingly free money nonetheless.

betvictor got an offer on that sees all losing bets on the supreme novices refunded as a free bet.

hills offer tomorrow is 6/1 on oscar whisky apparently.
may be worth a poke in a weak as pish world hurdle, with more withdrawals seemingly every day.

ive taken the sprinter sacre offer..measly £20 though oh well

yeh betvictor very clever, get it back as promo cash and have to win more than the promo cash to get anything back... loads of terms and cons on that bet!

oscar whisky the bet of the festival!!! already on at 7's... hope it dont turn into a bog though good, good to soft would be nice but think it will come up soft alll round

Corals gone evens on Sprinter Scare!! Online only and £20 limit per customer, but its still a bargain.

Also, if you use promo code SHOP1073 when you put your bet on, you will get a free £20 after the race.

Yep .... gone for the Sprintre Sacre money with Coral...

Also..

Paddy Power.. going 4/1 Simonsig & My Tent Or Yours & 5/1 Hurricane Fly & Quevega