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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:34 pm 
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Ferocious Aardvark wrote:1. The claim that 93% of households in Scotland take out more from the public purse than they contribute; as I've no particular reason to think Scotland's case is in any way extraordinary, then presumably broadly similarish stats would apply to other European nations;


I'm sure I saw something in one of the weekend papers that UK household figures were roughly 50/50 or 60/40 - with 60% receiving more than they gave. I don't have the paper anymore and don't pay the online subs, so it's only on memory.






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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:35 pm 
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Big Graeme wrote:Basic economics say you either cut the expenses OR increase the income.


yep, and that's the difference in philosophy, which also includes the debate on big vs small state and state vs private provision, hence the difference between the two parties.






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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:44 pm 
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OK, so here's the idea, and my economics knowledge doesn't go as far as nation states

Gov expense is more than revenues and can't be sustained.

If the gov wants to cut expense and fthere are a bunch of public employees (whether police, armed forces, civil servants, anyone paid by the gov) and they're paid e.g. £40K a year (of which £10K might come back in tax so making a £30K net cost) then if those roles are removed and each one is now only paid £6K a year in benefits, then the gov has saved £24K for each of those people no longer employed by the gov.
However, if those people find private employment (and lets just assume the same numbers for easy maths) then they turn into net contributors to the gov of £10K: So going from £30K cost, to £6K cost, to £10K benefit.

Where it gets complicated is the wider effect of what those people did with their £30K and where it went, trickle down, multiplier, whatever you want to call it, both in terms of spending that funds other employment, and other tax revenues.

That's how cuts could work. TBH, I don't really understand how spending our way out could really work. OK, so there's the Keynesian idea of paying someone to dig a hole and someone else to fill it in and they both go spending that pay in shops etc. But how does that work when we don't have the money to pay them in the first place at all?
Being a global economy makes it even more complex - what if they go spend all that pay abroad? Is anyone going to argue for isolationism as the answer?






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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:54 pm 
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I think that the current incumbents policy is based on the fact that when the Bursar gives you your ten shillings pocket money from Mater every week, if you don't spend any of it then at the end of term you've got no friends and about six pounds ten shillings in your bank account.

Quite how that converts to running a country I'm not sure, but I think thats where they got the idea from.






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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:05 pm 
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Richie wrote:... TBH, I don't really understand how spending our way out could really work ...


It failed in the years after 1945, didn't it?






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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:07 pm 
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Mintball wrote:It failed in the years after 1945, didn't it?


I don't know. I wasn't here and haven't looked at that period of economic history. I'd thought it had always been referred to as a time of austerity rather than spending though? How did we make it work then and how long did it take? With hindsight, was it the best route? All genuine questions.






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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:23 pm 
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on one of the news programmes the other day they suggested the general thinking is that a 1.5% cut in Govt Spending has a 0.5% impact on GDP.






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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:24 pm 
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Richie wrote:I don't know. I wasn't here and haven't looked at that period of economic history. I'd thought it had always been referred to as a time of austerity rather than spending though? How did we make it work then and how long did it take? With hindsight, was it the best route? All genuine questions.


The prosperity of the 1950s was created, at root, by state investment in everything from a universal healthcare system, greater educational opportunities for all, home building – and many other measures of investment.

To start with, reconstruction was obviously needed just to deal with the damage caused by bombing.

What it did was put people into work – it created jobs. But it also created a healthier, more educated workforce, not just for then but for later.

It was an approach that was hugely influenced by the knowledge of what soldiers had returned to after WWI – the "land fit for heroes", as promised by David Lloyd George, turned out to be nothing of the sort, as the Depression hit, itself created (in part at least) by the sort of 'trickle-down' economics that today's neo-liberals pretend will somehow work better now.

Right now, because we have deindustrialised, in the short term we need to regain consumer confidence and get people spending – whether on services or goods (because that's what 75% of our national economy is now based on).

So you invest. At this point, borrowing to do that is as cheap as it can be. But if you do something quickly it will start to have a positive impact quickly too. So for instance – I think I mentioned, recently, Robert Skidelsky's idea of insulating homes, which could be done quickly (training new workers to do it is not difficult and doesn't take long). The first and quickest result is that you put a large number of people back into meaningful work. They're no longer claiming benefits, but paying tax – and spending money within their own local economies. The longer-term benefits would see people's housing improve and their bills fall (and I'm not even going to mention the enviornmental benefit :wink: ).

So you get a lot for that investment.

In the longer term, I think everybody now realises that the economy needs to be rebalanced. But that is a long term thing – it cannot happen overnight. So if you don't want the deficit to simply keep on growing, you have to tackle confidence and employment.

If you simply keep cutting benefits, you'll probably increase crime – and you'll see even more increases in food banks, soup kitchens and people ending their own lives out of despair. Those are no, in my opinion, options for a civilised society.

You can, of course, also increase revenues through taxation. It's interesting at present that the Times is obsessing about famous individuals who use tax avoidance schemes. David Cameron himself has condemned at least one who did that (although stopped that approach in short order) and has now even mentioned 'the rich paying their share'. But I would suggest that the far greater question is not increasing tax – but collecting the tax that is owed by corporations.

Today, for instance, we learn that Facebook UK paid just £238K on a UK turnover of £20.4m (Story). Don't raise taxes – simply collect them.
Richie wrote:I don't know. I wasn't here and haven't looked at that period of economic history. I'd thought it had always been referred to as a time of austerity rather than spending though? How did we make it work then and how long did it take? With hindsight, was it the best route? All genuine questions.


The prosperity of the 1950s was created, at root, by state investment in everything from a universal healthcare system, greater educational opportunities for all, home building – and many other measures of investment.

To start with, reconstruction was obviously needed just to deal with the damage caused by bombing.

What it did was put people into work – it created jobs. But it also created a healthier, more educated workforce, not just for then but for later.

It was an approach that was hugely influenced by the knowledge of what soldiers had returned to after WWI – the "land fit for heroes", as promised by David Lloyd George, turned out to be nothing of the sort, as the Depression hit, itself created (in part at least) by the sort of 'trickle-down' economics that today's neo-liberals pretend will somehow work better now.

Right now, because we have deindustrialised, in the short term we need to regain consumer confidence and get people spending – whether on services or goods (because that's what 75% of our national economy is now based on).

So you invest. At this point, borrowing to do that is as cheap as it can be. But if you do something quickly it will start to have a positive impact quickly too. So for instance – I think I mentioned, recently, Robert Skidelsky's idea of insulating homes, which could be done quickly (training new workers to do it is not difficult and doesn't take long). The first and quickest result is that you put a large number of people back into meaningful work. They're no longer claiming benefits, but paying tax – and spending money within their own local economies. The longer-term benefits would see people's housing improve and their bills fall (and I'm not even going to mention the enviornmental benefit :wink: ).

So you get a lot for that investment.

In the longer term, I think everybody now realises that the economy needs to be rebalanced. But that is a long term thing – it cannot happen overnight. So if you don't want the deficit to simply keep on growing, you have to tackle confidence and employment.

If you simply keep cutting benefits, you'll probably increase crime – and you'll see even more increases in food banks, soup kitchens and people ending their own lives out of despair. Those are no, in my opinion, options for a civilised society.

You can, of course, also increase revenues through taxation. It's interesting at present that the Times is obsessing about famous individuals who use tax avoidance schemes. David Cameron himself has condemned at least one who did that (although stopped that approach in short order) and has now even mentioned 'the rich paying their share'. But I would suggest that the far greater question is not increasing tax – but collecting the tax that is owed by corporations.

Today, for instance, we learn that Facebook UK paid just £238K on a UK turnover of £20.4m (Story). Don't raise taxes – simply collect them.






"You are working for Satan." Kirkstaller

"Dare to know!" Immanuel Kant

"Do not take life too seriously. You will never get out of it alive" Elbert Hubbard

"We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars." Oscar Wilde

The Voluptuous Manifesto – thoughts on all sorts of stuff.

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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:27 pm 
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In response to the OP, cutbacks don't save the economy.

According to the IMF (page 43) every £1 cut by countries with developed economies since the financial crisis, directly lead to a drop in output of between £0.90 and £1.70. Apparently the OBR were expecting every £1 cut to result in a £0.40 drop in GDP.

So not only are the cuts directly harming growth, the government knew (although not to this extent) that this was going to happen. Makes 'the budget for growth', and the gov't blaming poor growth on extra bank holidays/the weather/Europe look pretty disingenuous.

A Tory group was using FB to spread propaganda, claiming that by 2016/17 debt would be £300billion lower than if Labour were in power. I explained that if this were true, then according to the IMF this means that the Conservatives would've been responsible for an approximate 30% drop in GDP by 2016/17 compared to if Labour were in power. Surprisingly no one replied to my comment, they all just carried on sharing and liking the 'fact' as if i'd never posted.

Richie wrote:I'm sure I saw something in one of the weekend papers that UK household figures were roughly 50/50 or 60/40 - with 60% receiving more than they gave. I don't have the paper anymore and don't pay the online subs, so it's only on memory.

According to the link FA posted, the number of households who are net-recipients of the state is 53%, but this drops to 40% when you only look a at non-retired households. I have no idea how Scotland can be doing so much worse than the UK as a whole, I suspect some statistics may have been manipulated/misinterpreted, If not then surely Scottish independence is completely out of the question.
In response to the OP, cutbacks don't save the economy.

According to the IMF (page 43) every £1 cut by countries with developed economies since the financial crisis, directly lead to a drop in output of between £0.90 and £1.70. Apparently the OBR were expecting every £1 cut to result in a £0.40 drop in GDP.

So not only are the cuts directly harming growth, the government knew (although not to this extent) that this was going to happen. Makes 'the budget for growth', and the gov't blaming poor growth on extra bank holidays/the weather/Europe look pretty disingenuous.

A Tory group was using FB to spread propaganda, claiming that by 2016/17 debt would be £300billion lower than if Labour were in power. I explained that if this were true, then according to the IMF this means that the Conservatives would've been responsible for an approximate 30% drop in GDP by 2016/17 compared to if Labour were in power. Surprisingly no one replied to my comment, they all just carried on sharing and liking the 'fact' as if i'd never posted.

Richie wrote:I'm sure I saw something in one of the weekend papers that UK household figures were roughly 50/50 or 60/40 - with 60% receiving more than they gave. I don't have the paper anymore and don't pay the online subs, so it's only on memory.

According to the link FA posted, the number of households who are net-recipients of the state is 53%, but this drops to 40% when you only look a at non-retired households. I have no idea how Scotland can be doing so much worse than the UK as a whole, I suspect some statistics may have been manipulated/misinterpreted, If not then surely Scottish independence is completely out of the question.

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 Post subject: Re: How do cutbacks save economies?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:30 pm 
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Spending (i.e. investing) borrowed money on much-needed infrastructure (for example) creates jobs, puts cash into GDP and the benefit is felt by many more than just those who work on those projects.
Only the fruitbat end of the economist spectrum disagrees with that.
Or Osborne as he's known.

As long as national economies continue to try to out-austere each other, global trade will continue to diminish.






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