FORUMS FORUMS






RLFANS.COM
Celebrating
25 years service to
the Rugby League
Community!

  

Home The Sin Bin Are UK house prices sustainable?



Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 33 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:40 pm 
International Chairman
International Chairman
User avatar

Joined: May 25 2002
Posts: 37704
Location: Zummerzet, where the zoider apples grow
Dally wrote:That's true - the area is full of them. Especially at lunchtime - when the young retirees live it up with expensive pub lunches on their hefty pensions.

Last night Mrs D was out with a friend who recently packed up working with the local authority. She was the lowest paid member of dept but they can't cope without her - because the more senior people are so hopeless. They have asked her to go back on triple the salary - not bad in times of 25% cuts, hey? It's bloo** ludicrous how the petty beaurocrats can always find money to cover their inept backsides but not for the services to help the people they are supposed to.


I reckon she'll be returning on a per diem, consultative basis, rather than as a full-time employee and as such, that's not far from the norm that they'd expect to pay an agency for someone without the necessary experience. Sounds cheap to me






The older I get, the better I was

Advice is what we seek when we already know the answer - but wish we didn't

I'd rather have a full bottle in front of me than a full-frontal lobotomy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
kirkstaller wrote: "All DNA shows is that we have a common creator."

cod'ead wrote: "I have just snotted weissbier all over my keyboard & screen"

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"No amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin." - Aneurin Bevan

Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 5:50 pm 
Player Coach
International Star
User avatar

Joined: May 25 2006
Posts: 8893
Location: Garth's Darkplace.
Dally wrote:Our local 'paper pointed out that average house prices in St Albans are a little over £430,000 and that if someone gets a mortgage with a 25% deposit (which will be nearly £110,000) they need a salary of £90,000 pa to get a mortgage.



What salary do they need to actually be able to afford that mortgage?






"Well, I think in Rugby League if you head butt someone there's normally some repercusions"

Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 6:12 pm 
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Jun 01 2007
Posts: 12646
Location: Leicestershire.
sally cinnamon wrote:The massive growth in house prices between 1996 to 2006 was well above long term trend and there was obviously scope to fall from then. I think house prices have stabilised now though. I expect that that big growth in house prices will not be repeated any time in the next few decades as wage growth is likely to be low for some time and lenders are unlikely to go crazy making the loans they did in the late 1990s and early 2000s so that will depress demand.

Nationwide's index of house prices suggests that they have now returned more or less to trend from 1975 to present. It would have been healthier for the economy if growth had followed that smooth red line.

Image

That graph is in real house prices by the way, ie adjusted for inflation to todays price, when it says the average house cost £65k in 1977, the actual average price then was around £13k, but that would be £65k in todays money.


It's interesting that prices have risen 2.9% above inflation (on average), over such a long period. I'd expect a period of real house prices falling, without the actual ticket price dropping too much. A readjustment is necessary and healthy. That's best case - the bottom could still fall out of things completely into a downward spiral, I guess. That wouldn't last forever, but as you say, a smoother line is better. A less steep one too, IMO.






'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.

Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 6:33 pm 
International Chairman
International Chairman
User avatar

Joined: May 25 2002
Posts: 37704
Location: Zummerzet, where the zoider apples grow
Mild Rover wrote:It's interesting that prices have risen 2.9% above inflation (on average), over such a long period. I'd expect a period of real house prices falling, without the actual ticket price dropping too much. A readjustment is necessary and healthy. That's best case - the bottom could still fall out of things completely into a downward spiral, I guess. That wouldn't last forever, but as you say, a smoother line is better. A less steep one too, IMO.


The only time any downwards re-adjustment will occur is if there's a release of suitable land and affordable houses onto the market, all the time that demand outstrips supply, prices will ineviatably increase.

The strange thing is, there's thousands of acres of suitable land available, much of it owned by local authorities and government agencies and that's without all the landbanking that's been taking place over the last 20 years or so. If the owners of this land were to be charged an annula land tax, based on the theoretical maximum developed potential of the land, the market would be flooded.

There's also 1 million long-term, empty houses in this country that could be turned over to the 2 million looking for a home of their own. It's time we moved away from the marketisation of homes and returned them to being primarily places to live.

Watch Phil's empty homes giveaway
Mild Rover wrote:It's interesting that prices have risen 2.9% above inflation (on average), over such a long period. I'd expect a period of real house prices falling, without the actual ticket price dropping too much. A readjustment is necessary and healthy. That's best case - the bottom could still fall out of things completely into a downward spiral, I guess. That wouldn't last forever, but as you say, a smoother line is better. A less steep one too, IMO.


The only time any downwards re-adjustment will occur is if there's a release of suitable land and affordable houses onto the market, all the time that demand outstrips supply, prices will ineviatably increase.

The strange thing is, there's thousands of acres of suitable land available, much of it owned by local authorities and government agencies and that's without all the landbanking that's been taking place over the last 20 years or so. If the owners of this land were to be charged an annula land tax, based on the theoretical maximum developed potential of the land, the market would be flooded.

There's also 1 million long-term, empty houses in this country that could be turned over to the 2 million looking for a home of their own. It's time we moved away from the marketisation of homes and returned them to being primarily places to live.

Watch Phil's empty homes giveaway






The older I get, the better I was

Advice is what we seek when we already know the answer - but wish we didn't

I'd rather have a full bottle in front of me than a full-frontal lobotomy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
kirkstaller wrote: "All DNA shows is that we have a common creator."

cod'ead wrote: "I have just snotted weissbier all over my keyboard & screen"

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"No amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin." - Aneurin Bevan

Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 6:40 pm 
International Chairman
Player Coach
User avatar

Joined: Dec 22 2001
Posts: 14845
cod'ead wrote:The only time any downwards re-adjustment will occur is if there's a release of suitable land and affordable houses onto the market, all the time that demand outstrips supply, prices will ineviatably increase.


When interest rates /nemployment rise, prices will drop.

Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 6:56 pm 
International Board Member
International Star
User avatar

Joined: Apr 27 2003
Posts: 8633
Simple answer to the OP..

If house prices increase by only 0.5% more than the average wage does, then it doesn't take a genius to see that there will fairly quickly come a point where people can't keep up with house prices.

We fairly obviously passed that point some time back, but I can't see anyone selling their house for less than they paid, can you? It's going to be desperation times for some though.






God is nothing more than an imaginary friend for grown ups.

Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 8:57 am 
International Star
Junior Player

Joined: Jul 22 2011
Posts: 164
In the 1960s, you could get a mortgage that was 3 x a husband's salary + 10% deposit
In the 1980s, they relaxed the rules to 3 x couple's salaries + 5% (and then 0%) deposit
Then in the mid 1980s, it was interest-only endowment mortgages
At the peak (2008 ish), it was 5 x couple's salaries (interest only) + 0% deposit + money from mum and dad + credit cards
Today, we're probably at 4 x couple's salary (repayment) + 10% deposit + bank of mum and dad
We probably should be at 3 x couple's salary (repayment) + 15% deposit.

However, people have been waiting for a proper property crash since 1991 and it's not really happened yet.

As average salaries are not going anywhere, rising prices seem to depend on government subsidies and an increase in demand for homes. There is predicted to be a long term rise in demand, and governments do benefit politically from rising house prices.

In Japan they have, I think, 100 year inter-generational mortgages. Maybe that'll be the next development.

In other words, who knows when the madness will end.

Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 9:25 am 
International Chairman
International Chairman
User avatar

Joined: May 25 2002
Posts: 37704
Location: Zummerzet, where the zoider apples grow
tw15 wrote:
In Japan they have, I think, 100 year inter-generational mortgages. Maybe that'll be the next development.

In other words, who knows when the madness will end.


They've had that on the continent since WW2. Parents leave their offspring a debt rather than an asset. But then again, most continentals view a house as somewhere to live, we have taken a different view since 1980






The older I get, the better I was

Advice is what we seek when we already know the answer - but wish we didn't

I'd rather have a full bottle in front of me than a full-frontal lobotomy
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
kirkstaller wrote: "All DNA shows is that we have a common creator."

cod'ead wrote: "I have just snotted weissbier all over my keyboard & screen"

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"No amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin." - Aneurin Bevan

Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 10:15 am 
International Chairman
Player Coach
User avatar

Joined: Dec 22 2001
Posts: 14845
tw15 wrote:
We probably should be at 3 x couple's salary (repayment) + 15% deposit.



That's too high. We should be at 2.5 times one salary. Otherwise, kids suffer through two parents working and society starts falling apart. What I really hate to see is the toddlers being dumped in nurseries near our local train station whilst their dads go off to work in London (presumably because their mother's have already gone). These are parents with good salaries. If they cared about their children they'd move to a lower cost housing area (5 miles away you can get nice property for a third of the price) and one would look after the children.

Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: Are UK house prices sustainable?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 10:16 am 
Club Coach
Player Coach
User avatar

Joined: Oct 09 2004
Posts: 14135
I'm not sure where the idea that if you are from a certain area, you should de facto be able to buy in that area.

It's true that people's expectations are a little high sometimes. I've lost count of the amount of times I've registered applicants who want something that doesn't exist. A terraced house, not on a main road, with gardens and a drive, for instance. Then there are those with the 'I want it all, and I want it now' attitude, whilst not having the income to support those ambitions.

But I digress, the simplest solution would be that if you want to buy, move to an area you can afford, and attempt to trade up at a later date. But that's very simplistic, and effectively supports a theory that people will accept anything, when that's not the case.

The government have brought in 'firstbuy', which helps first time buyers financially. The trouble is, it's only available on new homes, which helps no-one except the builders building them. Those properties are empty, so it won't get any chains moving, and therefore won't help anyone trying to sell their homes.

Now if they offered a similar scheme on ALL properties below, say, the average for the area, it would be great. FTB could buy a terraced house, the sellers of which could then trade up to a semi and so on.

In terms of prices being unsustainable. Look, you're always going to get people who can and can't afford houses. It's always been like that, and whilst it's very noble suggesting that 'affordable' houses should be built, that then opens up a massive can of worms in that you have to put all sorts of covenants on to ensure they remain affordable when they're sold on.

You have to ban investors from buying them, which on one hand is great because it means those properties remain in owner-occupant hands (where they should be), but in reality, handicaps you because it then severely limits your chance of selling. In that price range, investors make up a HUGE percentage of your buyers.

Then you have the social stigma to contend with. It's wrong, of course, but you WILL get people comparing them with the old 'council estates', only this time, because they're owner occupied, you've not got the council performing routine maintenance. If everyone is on a low income, how long do you think it will be before the houses start to look a little tired, because the owners can't afford to repair them?

Basically, all you're doing is transferring a problem that is dotted around, and concentrating them onto large estates, and it won't be long before people are shouting about how the Tories want to round them all up and stigmatise these people. Did any of you think of that?






"I've not come 'alfway round t'world fot watch us lose. And I've come halfway round t'world, an' av watched um lose"

Top
   
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 33 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next





It is currently Tue Nov 12, 2024 3:53 pm


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 47 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  


It is currently Tue Nov 12, 2024 3:53 pm
RLFANS Recent Posts
FORUM
LAST
POST
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
2m
Recruitment rumours and links
Or thane
3541
2m
Rule Changes
Ellam
8
7m
Game - Song Titles
Wanderer
40559
8m
BORED The Band Name Game
Wanderer
63052
9m
Film game
Wanderer
5251
10m
NRL Kick Off Rules
stpatricks
7
19m
ALL NEW 49ERS ERA LEEDS UTD THREAD
Trebor1
2560
32m
2025 Season tickets
alegend
194
Recent
Pre Season - 2025
EtonStreetRi
137
Recent
2025 merchandise
FIL
13
FORUM
LAST
VIEW
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
33s
2025 Season tickets
alegend
194
47s
Schoey not a well man
Trebor1
11
1m
BORED The Band Name Game
Wanderer
63052
1m
Pre Season - 2025
EtonStreetRi
137
1m
DoR - New Coach - Investor & Adam - New signings
Dave K.
3730
1m
Shopping list for 2025
Dave K.
5495
1m
NRL Kick Off Rules
stpatricks
7
2m
Game - Song Titles
Wanderer
40559
2m
Memorable Games
ComeOnYouUll
33
3m
New Players
Victor
114
FORUM
NEW
TOPICS
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
TODAY
2025 KIT Thread
Sadfish
1
TODAY
NRL Kick Off Rules
stpatricks
7
TODAY
Garry Schofield
PopTart
6
TODAY
Out of contract 2025
Wires71
8
TODAY
Gary Scofield
Rugby Raider
8
TODAY
Joe Phillips
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Andy Ellis
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Manoa Wacokecoke
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Jeylan Hodgson
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Mackenzie Harman
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Ben Dent
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Callum Rutland
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Harry Aldous
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Jack Aldous
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Garry Schofield
karetaker
12
TODAY
Lennon Bursell
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Brett Ferres
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Reece Dean
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Alex Holdstock
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Thomas Minns
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Josh Guzdek
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Jamie Shaul
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Ben Hodder
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Tom Halliday
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Scott Taylor appointed as Head Coach
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Schoey not a well man
Trebor1
11
TODAY
Guess whos backtrying anyway
Bullseye
4
TODAY
Welcome on board
Sadfish
1
TODAY
Will Brough gone
dboy
20
TODAY
The Brick Stadium ownership update
Father Ted
16
NEWS ITEMS
VIEWS
England Beat Samoa To Take Tes..
846
England's Women Demolish The W..
662
England Beat Samoa Comfortably..
956
Operational Rules Tribunal –..
753
IMG-RFL club gradings released..
1043
Wakefield Trinity Win Champion..
1550
Hunslet Secure Promotion After..
1785
Trinity Into Play Off Final Af..
2053
Wigan Warriors Crowned Champio..
1638
York Valkyrie Win Back to Back..
1881
Hunslet Book Relegation Play O..
2266
Penrith Panthers Secure Fourth..
1803
Wigan Humiliate Leigh For Gran..
1885
Hull KR Survive Warrington Fig..
2043
Warrington Wolves Break Saints..
2199
RLFANS Match Centre
Matches on TV
Sat 2nd Nov
MINT2024 3 England M34-16Samoa M
WINT2024 2 ENGLAND W82-0WALES W
This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Mens Betfred Super League XXVIII ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Wigan 29 768 338 430 48
Hull KR 29 731 344 387 44
Warrington 29 769 351 418 42
Leigh 29 580 442 138 33
Salford 28 556 561 -5 32
St.Helens 28 618 411 207 30
 
Catalans 27 475 427 48 30
Leeds 27 530 488 42 28
Huddersfield 27 468 658 -190 20
Castleford 27 425 735 -310 15
Hull FC 27 328 894 -566 6
LondonB 27 317 916 -599 6
This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Betfred Championship 2024 ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Wakefield 27 1032 275 757 52
Toulouse 26 765 388 377 37
Bradford 28 723 420 303 36
York 29 695 501 194 32
Widnes 27 561 502 59 29
Featherstone 27 634 525 109 28
 
Sheffield 26 626 526 100 28
Doncaster 26 498 619 -121 25
Halifax 26 509 650 -141 22
Batley 26 422 591 -169 22
Swinton 28 484 676 -192 20
Barrow 25 442 720 -278 19
Whitehaven 25 437 826 -389 18
Dewsbury 27 348 879 -531 4
Hunslet 1 6 10 -4 0
RLFANS Recent Posts
FORUM
LAST
POST
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
2m
Recruitment rumours and links
Or thane
3541
2m
Rule Changes
Ellam
8
7m
Game - Song Titles
Wanderer
40559
8m
BORED The Band Name Game
Wanderer
63052
9m
Film game
Wanderer
5251
10m
NRL Kick Off Rules
stpatricks
7
19m
ALL NEW 49ERS ERA LEEDS UTD THREAD
Trebor1
2560
32m
2025 Season tickets
alegend
194
Recent
Pre Season - 2025
EtonStreetRi
137
Recent
2025 merchandise
FIL
13
FORUM
LAST
VIEW
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
33s
2025 Season tickets
alegend
194
47s
Schoey not a well man
Trebor1
11
1m
BORED The Band Name Game
Wanderer
63052
1m
Pre Season - 2025
EtonStreetRi
137
1m
DoR - New Coach - Investor & Adam - New signings
Dave K.
3730
1m
Shopping list for 2025
Dave K.
5495
1m
NRL Kick Off Rules
stpatricks
7
2m
Game - Song Titles
Wanderer
40559
2m
Memorable Games
ComeOnYouUll
33
3m
New Players
Victor
114
FORUM
NEW
TOPICS
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
TODAY
2025 KIT Thread
Sadfish
1
TODAY
NRL Kick Off Rules
stpatricks
7
TODAY
Garry Schofield
PopTart
6
TODAY
Out of contract 2025
Wires71
8
TODAY
Gary Scofield
Rugby Raider
8
TODAY
Joe Phillips
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Andy Ellis
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Manoa Wacokecoke
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Jeylan Hodgson
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Mackenzie Harman
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Ben Dent
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Callum Rutland
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Harry Aldous
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Jack Aldous
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Garry Schofield
karetaker
12
TODAY
Lennon Bursell
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Brett Ferres
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Reece Dean
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Alex Holdstock
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Thomas Minns
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Josh Guzdek
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Jamie Shaul
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Ben Hodder
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Tom Halliday
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Scott Taylor appointed as Head Coach
Wanderer
1
TODAY
Schoey not a well man
Trebor1
11
TODAY
Guess whos backtrying anyway
Bullseye
4
TODAY
Welcome on board
Sadfish
1
TODAY
Will Brough gone
dboy
20
TODAY
The Brick Stadium ownership update
Father Ted
16
NEWS ITEMS
VIEWS
England Beat Samoa To Take Tes..
846
England's Women Demolish The W..
662
England Beat Samoa Comfortably..
956
Operational Rules Tribunal –..
753
IMG-RFL club gradings released..
1043
Wakefield Trinity Win Champion..
1550
Hunslet Secure Promotion After..
1785
Trinity Into Play Off Final Af..
2053
Wigan Warriors Crowned Champio..
1638
York Valkyrie Win Back to Back..
1881
Hunslet Book Relegation Play O..
2266
Penrith Panthers Secure Fourth..
1803
Wigan Humiliate Leigh For Gran..
1885
Hull KR Survive Warrington Fig..
2043
Warrington Wolves Break Saints..
2199


Visit the RLFANS.COM SHOP
for more merchandise!












.