Post subject: Re: Time to predict the score & why?
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 3:10 pm
Mild Rover
Moderator
Joined: Jun 01 2007 Posts: 12664 Location: Leicestershire.
dayvoz wrote:total rubbish,why would more people back hull f.c to win if they were clearly inferior to an opponent with less supporters,hull have more support than saints but are never favourites to beat them
That is because Saints have generally been quite a bit better than Hull. Hull's extra fans may have cut their start from +10 to +8, or brought them in from 5-2 to 2-1, for example. Bookies set their odds according to how they anticipate people will bet and then adjust them according to how they do - and this doesn't always exactly reflect real likelihoods as some people bet on their own clubs and are likely gamble in a way that reflects their hopes rather than being completely rational.
A couple of examples - England are usually at stupidly short odds with bookmakers going into a FIFA World Cup.
Or hypothetically, you're a bookie. There's a horse - bit of a nag but not a hopeless case. You have it at 16-1. [Andy Gray]Some merry widow, tipsy on champagne decides it has a pretty name[/Andy Gray] and takes a massive plunge on it. You'd probably lay some off, but you'd also likely cut its odds, to 12-1 say, and maybe lengthen those on other horses. Your opinion of the horse hasn't changed - you're just making sure you win.
The aim of an evens money handicap is to attract equal bets to both sides, taking into account reality and perception, then win on the tie-with-handicap.
'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.
Post subject: Re: Time to predict the score & why?
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 4:01 pm
Sandro II Terrorista
Player Coach
Joined: Jan 15 2007 Posts: 11924 Location: Secret Hill Top Lair. V.2
pmh wrote:I think this is a new low.
It can't get much worse than having to explain someone's own posts to them.
It wasn't, even I can be wrong sometimes.
dayvoz wrote:total rubbish,why would more people back hull f.c to win if they were clearly inferior to an opponent with less supporters,hull have more support than saints but are never favourites to beat them
If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and yet depreciate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground. They want rain without thunder and lightning. They want the ocean without the awful roar of its many waters. This struggle may be a moral one; or it may be a physical one; or it may be both moral and physical; but it must be a struggle.
Post subject: Re: Time to predict the score & why?
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 6:50 pm
rover49
Player Coach
Joined: Mar 05 2007 Posts: 13190 Location: Hedon (sometimes), sometimes Premier Inn's
dayvoz wrote:total rubbish,why would more people back hull f.c to win if they were clearly inferior to an opponent with less supporters,hull have more support than saints but are never favourites to beat them
The same reason some Rovers fans will have backed us to beat Wire in the cup when we aere in NL1, its called a gamble and sometimes you win them.
'when my life is over, the thing which will have given me greatest pride is that I was first to plunge into the sea, swimming freely underwater without any connection to the terrestrial world'
Post subject: Re: Time to predict the score & why?
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 7:11 pm
dayvoz
Player Coach
Joined: Jul 18 2010 Posts: 1288 Location: where dobbins board & squad live west of the river
Mild Rover wrote:That is because Saints have generally been quite a bit better than Hull. Hull's extra fans may have cut their start from +10 to +8, or brought them in from 5-2 to 2-1, for example. Bookies set their odds according to how they anticipate people will bet and then adjust them according to how they do - and this doesn't always exactly reflect real likelihoods as some people bet on their own clubs and are likely gamble in a way that reflects their hopes rather than being completely rational.
A couple of examples - England are usually at stupidly short odds with bookmakers going into a FIFA World Cup.
Or hypothetically, you're a bookie. There's a horse - bit of a nag but not a hopeless case. You have it at 16-1. [Andy Gray]Some merry widow, tipsy on champagne decides it has a pretty name[/Andy Gray] and takes a massive plunge on it. You'd probably lay some off, but you'd also likely cut its odds, to 12-1 say, and maybe lengthen those on other horses. Your opinion of the horse hasn't changed - you're just making sure you win.
The aim of an evens money handicap is to attract equal bets to both sides, taking into account reality and perception, then win on the tie-with-handicap.
so you,re saying cos hull have a few more fans than kr the bookies will lengthen the kr price and leave themselves open to pro gamblers ,at a push maybe 10% of hull fans in this case will have a bet on the match yet millions with no affiliation to either team will bet on the game so your theory doesnt stand up in this case but i agree with the england example because of the large numbers involved
eastul105 wrote lets be fair Mickey Paea is too good for us.
Post subject: Re: Time to predict the score & why?
Posted: Fri Feb 04, 2011 8:06 pm
Mild Rover
Moderator
Joined: Jun 01 2007 Posts: 12664 Location: Leicestershire.
dayvoz wrote:so you,re saying cos hull have a few more fans than kr the bookies will lengthen the kr price and leave themselves open to pro gamblers ,at a push maybe 10% of hull fans in this case will have a bet on the match yet millions with no affiliation to either team will bet on the game so your theory doesnt stand up in this case but i agree with the england example because of the large numbers involved
'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.
Post subject: Re: Time to predict the score & why?
Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:14 am
Mr. Zucchini Head
Player Coach
Joined: Jan 08 2006 Posts: 12116
dayvoz wrote:total rubbish,why would more people back hull f.c to win if they were clearly inferior to an opponent with less supporters,hull have more support than saints but are never favourites to beat them
Bookmakers adjust their odds based on the money that is placed. If for example there was a massive flurry of money on KR you will notice the handicap will drop or Rovers may even be installed as favourites. It is to a certain extent based on opinion/form etc but it is a question of maths and the odds are offered in a way that means the bookies are unlikely to lose big amounts. It's not got anything to do with the size of the club but about the people who are placing a bet. Odds offered by the bookies are essentially based on the opinions of those who are betting.
Post subject: Re: Time to predict the score & why?
Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2011 12:27 pm
Mr. Zucchini Head
Player Coach
Joined: Jan 08 2006 Posts: 12116
GraftonRed wrote:So in a nut shell.... It's not the bookies that rarely get it wrong, it is in fact the fans who rarely get it wrong?
In effect yes, the bookies love it when an outsider wins because the reason they were outsiders is that not much money was placed on them.
Over the course of the season I could probably predict 70% of the games. However there's no money to be made because most people tend to pick similar results.
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