Joined: Feb 17 2003 Posts: 4988 Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Royal Ascot starts tomorrow and I'm hoping we can get off to a good start on Day One. A few fancies for me - mainly in the Group races and the apparent non-appearance of Irish Field in the Coventry is a disappointment.
Queen Anne Stakes
Dalghar - Hoping to get the day off to a good start with this Alain De Royer-Dupre trained colt owned by the Aga Khan and ridden by our good friend Christophe Lemaire. He showed promise as a 2yo when winning a minor event at Maissons-Lafitte before failing by two lengths to overcome smart sprinter Smooth Operator on heavy ground ina Group 2 later that season. He started his 3yo career very late on due to an injury and managed just the two starts during the season, a win over a mile in a conditions event at Longchamp at the end of Octobe rand a win on Deauville's all-weather surface at the start of December beating subsequent listed scorer Rocette by 1 1/2 lengths. He returned at the start of May on good ground at Longchamp when runner-up to Sunday's Group 3 winner Fuisse with useful runners Konig Bernard and Russian Cross both in behind. He prepped for this with an impressive victory over 7f at Longchamp in a Group 3 on Epsom Derby day under todays jockey. In my eyes there are negatives surrounding two fo the first three in the market with Rip Van Winkle needing his debut last season and Paco Boy doing it all on the bridle last time out at Newbury against much weaker opposition. Dalghar looks the best of the remainder with Goldikova a stand-out and runners from the yard in the UK have to be respected, coupled with the horses 2/2 record with Lemaire on board he rates a good each-way bet.
Advice: 1pt E/W Dalghar @ 16/1 (Stan James)
St James' Palace Stakes
Nobles Promise - Very solid US raider and probably the first runner in this race who made his previous start on a dirt track in Kentucky. NP was placed fifth on his latest start in America's top race for 3yo's - the Kentucky Derby, tracking the leaders for much of the race befor fading inside the last furlong (10f race) as the winner Super Saver, fast finishing runner-up Ice Box and fellow hold up horses Paddy O'Prado and Make Music For Me swept past him. Outside of Super Saver he did best of the horses ridden prominently in a race that tends to favour horses coming from mid-pack primarily due to the fast and furious nature of the event. His KY Derby prpe in the Arkansas equivalent was a bit of a damp squib with him going down to Line of David when finishing towards the rear but prior to that he'd run Preakness Stakes and Hollywood Futurity winner Lookin At Lucky to a head in a G2 9f event again at Oaklawn, he was runner-up in the Hollywood Futurity and third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, both over just shy of 9f and he has turf experience working at trainer Ken McPeek's farm in the US and also when beating Gentleman John in a Ellis Park Maiden in a fast time as a 2yo (Septembe r2009). He's won a Grade 1 on a polytrack surface as a 2yo at Keeneland which should stand him in good stead for this race and his trainer came close to taking home a Group 1 back in 2004 when Hard Buck ran second to Doyen in the King George here.
Elyaadi - Something I like for these big staying races is a horse who's coming off a big run over shorter. This mare fits this profile perfectly having won her latest start at at Leopardstown by 5 lengths over a useful yardstick in Essex with Zarinava (2nd since) back in third and Alpine Glade (been running well in graded hurdles) also running in behind. She took her time to get going that day which makes me think that she'll be better suited to 2m 4f than many of these provided that Fran Berry can get her into a rhythm and slowly wind her up from 4 or 5f from home. The trainer is someone to be respected on raids away from home and the owner likes a bet so no surprise to see her backed (as the owners Moran Gra was on this day last year). Advice: 2pts Win, 1pt Place @ 16/1 (Stan James, Victor Chandler)
Think the big two of Makfi and Canford can be taken on tomorrow with Steinbeck and Dick Turpin both looking excellent EW bets. Steinbeck will come on a lot from his last run and after going close in two Guineas, Dick Turpin must be respected especially with Moore in the crows nest.
But, on the other hand, O'Brien's pacemakers could set the race up for Canford Cliffs again.
Can't believe some stingy bookies are only going 1/5 odds a place on tomorrows big races. Absolute rogues like.
What a day of racing tomorrow going to miss it all live so will have to avoid the results and watch it in the evening after work.
Going with CP's tips all @ E/W
Not gone over it enough yet for my own might not have the time but in the St James Palace Stakes I think Beethoven could be very overpriced at 100/1 and 19/1 place we have seen this year that the yards can get it wrong like with At First Sight and Dick Turpin beating the more fancied yard jolly.
It won the Dewhurst Stakes ahead of the likes of Dick Turpin, Steinbeck, Xtension and Fencing Master when wearing a visor for the first time coming strong and late to win it, then went for the Breeders Cup Juvenile again with a visor coming 6th and 2 3/4 lengths behind the winner, didnt really have a clear run in this got eased by Moore after getting stuck between horses early on and was never in a good position being switched to find a clear run late on, running on well but far too much to do, it breeding suggests this is its distance and its last two runs suggest it should be fine, its wearing a visor again tomorrow with it being a O'Brien horse would of like to have seen it have a run this year as a 3yo, as his seemed to need it be interesting to see if its a stronger horse from last year one to maybe look out for even if it doesn't show tomorrow.
Am a big fan of Paco Boy weather it can beat Goldikova though is a different story but I think it beats RVW here off level weights this time having lost while @ 9st 7lbs with RVW @ 8st 13lbs.
Its 5/6 in a match bet. 3/2 without Goldikova and 3/1 outright
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