Fixtures:Wednesday 23th August: Oldham v Workington
Wednesday 23rd August: Rochdale v London
Sunday 27th August: Cornwall v Rochdale
Sunday 27th August: N Wales v London
Sunday 27th August: Dons v Dewsbury
Sunday 27th August: Oldham v Midlands
Sunday 27th August: Workington v Hunslet
Table:1. Dewsbury 17, 31, Champions
2. Hunslet 17, 28, +300
3. Dons 17, 26, +240
4. Oldham 16, 23, +264
5. Workington 16, 20, +135
6. N Wales 17, 12, +41
7. Rochdale 16, 10, -137
Dons to finish second: We must beat Dewsbury & Hunslet must lose at Workington. There must also be a 61 point gain for the Dons in points difference. For example, if the Dons won by 40, Hunslet would need to lose by 21 or more.
This is an example, not an expectation! Dons to finish third: We will be third if we beat Dewsbury. Points difference won't matter. Oldham can't catch us.
If we lose to Dewsbury, Oldham must drop two points in their last two matches. If they draw against Workington but beat Midlands, the Dons and Oldham will have 26 points but Oldham will have the better points difference.
Dons to finish fourth: We lose to Dewsbury and Oldham get three points from their last two games.
Basically, if Oldham lose to Workington on Wednesday, they can't catch us. If they win or draw, everything roles on to Sunday.
If Worky don't beat Oldham then Worky have nothing to play for against Hunslet on Sunday. Worky will finish fifth.Last Play-off place: N Wales and Rochdale are fighting it out for the last play-off place. This might well come down to points difference. N Wales seem to have the upper hand on that front but Rochdale are playing London & Cornwall. It does seem rather silly that a team can reach the play-offs with just seven wins in 18 matches.
My best guess for the Dons' finishing position: Second Place 2%, Third Place 51%, Fourth Place 47%.I'm basing that primarily on the fact that Dewsbury might be in party spirit and give us a better chance than we might otherwise have. I don't think Oldham are a gimme against Worky as they had a tough game at Rochdale whilst Workington had the weekend off.
What does everyone else think? Are we more likely to be third than fourth?