... and who do they need to come against?

I'm going to discount Salford and Huddersfield from the race. It would take something remarkable. Huddersfield might scrape 4th if the others implode, but they won't catch us.

So that means three teams chasing us and we need to keep at least two of them behind us. What is really in our favour is that those three teams still all have to play each other. So every week someone is dropping points. Looking at the games everyone else has to play (not counting ourselves just yet) I would expect Saints to win all 4. Wigan to win 2/3 and Wakefield to win 1/3. But those records directly affect each other. So for example if Wakefield won 2/3 that means one of the others has dropped points.

If we win two games it's mathematically safe, and imo if we beat Leeds tomorrow it's done. I would be 90% sure that we would make it even if we didn't win another. But failing that I think as long as we can beat either Wigan or Wakefield that will be enough, although you are then at the mercy of other results, albeit unlikely ones. If Salford could turn someone over (preferably Wakefield this week) that would be a huge help.

Thoughts?

2 should do it for us. Would like to go into the last game at cas knowing we are in the 4. No point worrying about others but a saints/Wigan draw Friday night would be brilliant

lets hope the 3 heavy defeats at home and the magic weekend score doesn't come back to bite us regarding points difference.

Agreed, with Saints, Wigan and Wakefield all playing each other, two wins should be enough. Be nice if we could nick something tonight, but win our home games and we should be ok.

2 from 4 is what we need

If we get two then it's mathematically impossible that we miss out. But the more I think about the permutations I think 1 might be enough, although I wouldn't want to leave that to chance.

It is possible for us to win one game and still be out the top 4 though 1 win would theoretically it get us through also.

With us winning only one game, if both Wakefield and Saints win 3 games that would see us out the top 4, unless some bizarre situation of points difference as saints have +67 on us, so our only win (if that was the case) would have to be massive, us losing by a couple of points in the losses and saints get massively drubbed once whilst only winning their 3 games by a couple of points each. possible but unlikely.

Also if both Wigan and Saints win 3 games each and we only won 1 we'd also likely be out, it would similarly to above need Wigan to get thumped by a few in their one loss (out of 4) and not win by many in their 3 wins and for us to amass a load of points in our 1 win and lose by a point or two in the rest, possible of course.
Basically, win two games and we are deffo in the top 4.

Going to be tight .
Let's hope 2 losses to Catalans , and getting beat by Leigh won't come back to haunt us !

Indeed. Your sig needs updating BTW.

Done