Just been looking at last year's table which shows that the lowest placed team in the top 8 at the split was catalans with 20 points. This would leave us only needing 3 wins in our last 12 games which should be a formality however I can see the bar being a bit higher this year with 9 teams currently on 10 points or above so maybe we need 4 wins to be sure which should still be comfortably doable.
Top 4 at the split was 28 points which would be 7 wins from our remaining games - still achievable IMO if we keep players fit and start to find a bit more of an attacking edge.
Top 4 after the final 7 games was 38 points and above which would see us needing 24 points from the 38 on offer between now and season end. Not sure about this myself but hopeful that with the demise of leeds and huddersfield we can sneak into the play offs.
Using the same assumptions, leeds need to win 7 of their final 11 games to make the 8 and 16 of 18 to make the 4. A bit unlikely that last one.
We should make the top eight unless we have a dramatic collapse.
I agree that seven wins from twelve would probably mean a top four place at the end of the first stage of the season which would give us the benefit of four home games in the Super 8s. I'd be pretty happy with 5th or even 6th at the split if we are in a position to push on for the top four.
I'd still not bet against Leeds making the top eight. If they missed out it would make the middle eight interesting, not a good year to be in there. If Salford lose points due a salary cap breach then the middles eights could be Leeds, Huddersfield, Salford, Rovers, Leigh, London, Bradford, Batley.
Joined: Jul 15 2005 Posts: 29811 Location: West Yorkshire
I'd be happy with 6th. Next 6 games are massive; after them we'll have played Wigan, Catalans and Saints twice, in theory giving a reasonable regular round run-in. I can't see us progressing in the cup so league position is really important.
Joined: Oct 07 2006 Posts: 4928 Location: Drypool Bridge - watching out for invaders from the East.
Mrs Barista wrote:I'd be happy with 6th. Next 6 games are massive; after them we'll have played Wigan, Catalans and Saints twice, in theory giving a reasonable regular round run-in. I can't see us progressing in the cup so league position is really important.
Oh ye of little faith MrsB. (I actually think you're right though).
Mrs Barista wrote:I'd be happy with 6th. Next 6 games are massive; after them we'll have played Wigan, Catalans and Saints twice, in theory giving a reasonable regular round run-in. I can't see us progressing in the cup so league position is really important.
You're not exactly setting the bar high there Mrs B. You'd be happy if we go out of the cup in our first match and if we slip two places in the league?
Top 4 or bust for me. It's 50/50 whether we progress in the cup or not.
I think the target is to match our first half of the season (7/11) and win at Magic too. That would put us on 30 going into the split.
We're in a good position to move forward into the 2nd half of the comp but IMO we're still not playing that well. Good in patches, poor in others but overall it's our lack of attacking threat/capability that is costing us. Losing close games where one more score would win it could be the difference between top 4 and scraping in around 7th or 8th. It may be that we're just missing key personnel (down to washbrook in the halves at leeds) so hopefully with pryce back things will improve but we need to be winning at least half of our remaining games to be in with any shout of the top 4 come the play offs
Joined: Jul 15 2005 Posts: 29811 Location: West Yorkshire
Mr. Zucchini Head wrote:You're not exactly setting the bar high there Mrs B. You'd be happy if we go out of the cup in our first match and if we slip two places in the league?
Top 4 or bust for me. It's 50/50 whether we progress in the cup or not.
I think the target is to match our first half of the season (7/11) and win at Magic too. That would put us on 30 going into the split.
Just being consistent and realistic. I said 6th pre season. The challenge to back up in the second half is that teams like Cas, Salford, Wakey are more desperate. Much as I would love to win it, the cup tie at Saints looks very difficult as they have returning players; from a league campaign perspective it would probably be better to lose that one, but personally I'd take progression in the cup as a priority. I think today will be a big indicator of where we are.
Mrs Barista wrote:Just being consistent and realistic. I said 6th pre season. The challenge to back up in the second half is that teams like Cas, Salford, Wakey are more desperate. Much as I would love to win it, the cup tie at Saints looks very difficult as they have returning players; from a league campaign perspective it would probably be better to lose that one, but personally I'd take progression in the cup as a priority. I think today will be a big indicator of where we are.
Pre season predictions were based on the likelihood wigan and hudds would continue to be genuine top 4 contenders. As it is there is an opportunity for other clubs to take advantage. We finished the pre split in 7th last season so it would be going backwards in real terms if we were below 5th come the split. Of those who finished below us last year, only les cats look to have made significant progress (although wakey are obviously much better than this time last season).
Where are we compared to last year's comparable results? Ahead with home wins against hudds and wire but also lost to cas which we won last time and also won in France so we're 4 points ahead and a chance to go 6 up if we win today.
I think we've missed a couple of big opportunities against poor wigan and leeds teams so far to really cement our push for the top 4 and games like that could ultimately be the difference come the season end
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