Looks like it will be better ground than first anticipated, with soft side of good being reported. Last year's meeting started on good ground, but downpours as the week progressed led to chewed up, soft ground for the Saturday. Hopefully the rain will keep away this week and the ground won't get any worse.
The week undoubtedly revolves around arguably the two best flat horses in training - Frankel and Black Caviar. We all know all about Frankel by now, and he isn't facing anything that has a chance against him based on previous meetings or collateral form. Black Caviar is a bit more interesting, she has won every one of her races and has beaten all Australia can put up against her. She looks head and shoulders above most of the others that are declared, and there are only one or two that can really be given a squeak. Like So You Think last year however, it is hard to gauge how the Aussie form will transfer when she runs against Europe. On an unfamiliar track, having to acclimatise etc.
The first day starts with a bang, Frankel should win the Queen Anne by a fair few lengths. He had missed ten days work and was reported to need the run on his return in the Lockinge, and beat tomorrows main rival Excelebration by about 5L. Strong Suit should win a few races and maybe even get a group one over a mile or 7f if they place him right. Would be very interesting to see him against Excelebration over 7f or a mile on good ground. However, I'm not convinced tomorrow will play to his strengths, with the ground being soft and the two pacemakers blazing a trail it may just be too much for his stamina. Richard Hughes on SS and Joseph O'Brien on Excelebration may as well just forget Frankel and make second place their aim. The rest look much of a much, with the exception of pacemakers Bullet Train and Windsor Palace, and will all be fighting for the lesser honours. Something at a big price could nick third if Strong Suit doesn't stay, or they may even just be using this as a starting point before targeting something else later on in the season.
The King's Stand isn't my sort of race, I don't go mad on sprints, but there is a very strong foreign challenge. Ortensia comes all the way from Australia and has been in good form. Bated Breath leads the home charge, but trainer seems to think he wants faster ground to be at his best at G1 level. The ground should've dried enough for him to do himself justice. Wizz Kidd looks very interesting from France for his shrewd old trainer.
The St James Palace has been a favourite's paradise in recent years but this renewal looks completely wide open. Power won this Irish Guineas and this ground should be fine, as it'll be nowhere near as soft as when he flopped at Newmarket. Born To Sea is obviously a lot quirkier than his illustrious relation Sea The Stars, but he seems to be learning and the hood last time out also helped him. If they have him a bit nearer to the pace this time, providing he settles could be bang in there. Dragon Pulse has smart form when trained in Ireland last season and is worth another chance after a below par run last time. Most Improved was the subject of a monster gamble before the 2000 Guineas and was odds on for a trial before injury ruled him out. Made his return over a longer trip in the French Derby and had a luckless passage that day. That run should've served its purpose and will have no excuses today.
The Coventry isn't my sort of betting race and there are lots with cases to be made for. Dawn Approach has won well so far out of leading first season sire New Approach. Only concern is that Dawn Approach may be done by something with a more speedy pedigree. Cristoforo Colombo is out of Henrythenavigator (English & Irish Guineas winner, as well as this race in 2007 and St James Palace in 2008) and has been heavily supported for this in recent weeks. Richard Hannon is always well equipped for these sort of races, and Sir Prancelot was impressive last time out so also warrants much respect. However, the other Aidan O'Brien runner, Lines of Battle, is very interesting. Won well last time out, and Ryan Moore takes the ride, not uncommon for AOB second strings to win big races, especially juvenile ones.
The next race, the Ascot Stakes Handicap, isn't really my cup of tea. Al Khawaneej looks well weighted and was staying on over 2m last time out. Dark Ranger probably wants quicker ground, but is super consistent and should be another knocking on the door.
The final race of day one is the 5f Windsor Castle Stakes, a dreaded 2yo sprint with 23 runners. The Cumani runner must be monitored in the betting, being unraced so must obviously be showing something at home. Otherwise, this could be one for the pin sticker.
Selections: Frankel Wizz Kid Dragon Pulse (e/w) Cristoforo Colombo, Lines of Battle (e/w) Al Khawaneej (e/w), Dark Ranger (e/w) Lyric Ace
Bets so far: Lumped on Frankel, 2/9 Little bit on Excelebration (without Frankel market), 6/4
What are the rest of you backing?
Good luck all, hopefully will bash the bookies once more.
Black Caviar???.....What a pile of over-hyped toss.
I don't follow the horses as much as I used to, but from the build up and all the hype, I was expecting to see some awesome beast, destroying its opponents by Shergar proportions.
What we got, was a bog-standard sprinter who struggled home against some not particularly fantastic horses.
Very poor, very disappointing, almost as big an anti-climax as a Rugby Union international.
And so you aim towards the sky, And you'll rise high today, Fly away, Far away, Far from pain....
Joined: Aug 27 2005 Posts: 4371 Location: Bradford
I think you're underestimating what is a magnificent horse in Black Caviar. To go 22 out of 22 is phenomenal. Over-hyped is harsh.
Luke Nolen (the jockey) was the one who was at fault. He eased up on that horse towards the end and didn't give it nowhere near enough. Thankfully for him, it won by a head or else he would have been denied entry back into Australia.
The BullPen - Bradford Bulls Fansite: //bradfordbulls.wordpress.com/
AaronBull wrote:I think you're underestimating what is a magnificent horse in Black Caviar. To go 22 out of 22 is phenomenal. Over-hyped is harsh.
No doubt that the winning run is a great acheivement, but after all the build up and hype, its not unfair to have expected a lot better than what was produced, regardless of how poor and amateur the jockey's display was.
I know its all debatable, but sprinters of recent times, like Dayjur and Sheikh Albadou, would have seen off Black Caviar quite comfortably.
And so you aim towards the sky, And you'll rise high today, Fly away, Far away, Far from pain....
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King Try, Not Converted
