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Author:  wrencat1873 [ Mon Jul 05, 2021 8:13 am ]
Post subject:  "freeDUMB day"
The 19th July is being called "freedom day", with the Government looking like it will end all covid restrictions.
Is it "about time" or "too soon".
There is little doubt that the vaccine program has been a huge success so far and despite numbers starting to increase rapidly (again), this doesn't appear to be translating into huge numbers of hospitalisations and more importantly, the number of deaths is currently very small indeed.
There is little doubt that things should open up some more. However, on the basis that the changes are supposedly "irreversible", are we going to see another covid wave ?
We certainly look set to find out.
Author:  Bullseye [ Mon Jul 05, 2021 3:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: "freedom day"
Think a lot of people will be still holding back after "freedom day". I for one aren't that keen on testing the level of efficacy of my vaccination in a crowded pub, gig or RL stand.

While numbers in hospital aren't going up at the rate they were pre-vaccine they are still going up. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... -map/cases

In Yorks and Humber the numbers in hospital with it have gone up by a factor of 4 in the past month. That's with the remaining mitigations in place like face coverings, reduced capacities in shops etc. Compare that with the beginning of the last wave - 5th Sept to 5 Oct 2020 when the numbers in hospital with it when up by a factor of 7.5 with the same mitigations.

Clearly vaccinations keep the numbers of seriously ill people down. The question is, if we remove all mitigations what will be the impact? Even the best modelling isn't going to be completely right.
Think a lot of people will be still holding back after "freedom day". I for one aren't that keen on testing the level of efficacy of my vaccination in a crowded pub, gig or RL stand.

While numbers in hospital aren't going up at the rate they were pre-vaccine they are still going up. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... -map/cases

In Yorks and Humber the numbers in hospital with it have gone up by a factor of 4 in the past month. That's with the remaining mitigations in place like face coverings, reduced capacities in shops etc. Compare that with the beginning of the last wave - 5th Sept to 5 Oct 2020 when the numbers in hospital with it when up by a factor of 7.5 with the same mitigations.

Clearly vaccinations keep the numbers of seriously ill people down. The question is, if we remove all mitigations what will be the impact? Even the best modelling isn't going to be completely right.
Author:  King Street Cat [ Mon Jul 05, 2021 6:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: "freedom day"
It seems Sajid Javid is the new variant.
Author:  Zoo Zoo Boom [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: "freedom day"
I think Boris makes a valid point - it is the summer and kids are not in school - if you don't do it now it will be Easter next year.

Yesterday deaths were 12 from Covid and 2k in hospital at its peak there were 30k in hospital and 1k deaths a day - what are the criteria that makes everyone happy to remove restrictions - zero Covid?

There are still c2m on furlough is it fair that hospitality, sports, theatres to have operate if they are allowed in this way indefinitely? Should we close our borders for ever - no chance to visit relatives abroad?

Young people simply don't care and keeping restrictions in place will not change that and they seem to be the prime culprit in the growth of the infections.

Education cannot continue like this - children suffer very little and to have them all at home because one child test positive using a very inefficient test seems bonkers to me.

There surely has to come a time for personal responsibility - if you are not happy being around other people then protect yourself and allow the rest of society to live a normal life as possible.
Author:  Bullseye [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: "freedom day"
I can see the rationale Sal but I'd keep some of the mitigations such as mask wearing and social distancing in some settings.

A full removal of all restrictions seems a bit of a leap in the dark. Everyone around the world is looking at the UK to see what happens next.
Author:  wrencat1873 [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: "freedom day"
Bullseye wrote:I can see the rationale Sal but I'd keep some of the mitigations such as mask wearing and social distancing in some settings.

A full removal of all restrictions seems a bit of a leap in the dark. Everyone around the world is looking at the UK to see what happens next.


It does appear that we've gone schmidt or bust.
Surely another round of lifting restrictions before we go for herd immunity would have been a more wise option.

I dont really get the "now or never" concept.

It seems more likely that we have hit the "limit" of government borrowing and that "we" aren't prepared to keep on stacking debt.
The expectation of 50,000 new daily cases does seem out of sync with the route that we've had for the last 15/16 months.

Let's hope it works
Author:  Bullseye [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: "freedom day"
It's about balancing the negatives of keeping restrictions against the negatives of allowing the virus to spread without any mitigations of the risk. The efficacy of the vaccine helps decide which side you go with.

On the one hand you damage the economy further or on the other you increase the likelihood of more variants emerging.

If things get out of control we could well end up back where we started. It's uncharted territory. I'd be a bit more cautious than this.
Author:  wrencat1873 [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: "freedom day"
Bullseye wrote:It's about balancing the negatives of keeping restrictions against the negatives of allowing the virus to spread without any mitigations of the risk. The efficacy of the vaccine helps decide which side you go with.

On the one hand you damage the economy further or on the other you increase the likelihood of more variants emerging.

If things get out of control we could well end up back where we started. It's uncharted territory. I'd be a bit more cautious than this.


It seems that I was wrong with my 50,000 new cases a day.
Sajid Javid has said that "we" will see 100,000 new cases daily, which is an eye watering number.
Author:  Bullseye [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: "freedom day"
Those that have chosen not to have vaccines, haven't had the full two doses or who aren't able to have it are going to have some serious issues if we get to 100k new cases a day. Right Said Fred and Ian Brown's next gig might be in HDU/ITU.
Author:  The Ghost of '99 [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: "freedom day"
wrencat1873 wrote:It seems that I was wrong with my 50,000 new cases a day.
Sajid Javid has said that "we" will see 100,000 new cases daily, which is an eye watering number.

They are literally planning on letting the stuff sweep through the nation, regardless of the consequences.
Of which new British variants is by far the biggest issue now that deaths have gone away.
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