Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 5:03 pm
GUBRATS
Club Captain
Joined: Mar 08 2016 Posts: 2418
Roy Haggerty wrote:It's one thing to vote to take us all into an economic crisis. It's another thing to demand those who disagree with you stop expressing an opinion. But then, Ian Hislop has already expressed this better than I can.
No issue with anybody's opinion , but it is just that , an opinion , it isn't fact until it happens , overal I'll just be glad when ' remainers ' stop calling everybody else they disagree with bigots , it seems slightly hypocritical to do so , wouldnt you say
Roy Haggerty wrote:It's one thing to vote to take us all into an economic crisis. It's another thing to demand those who disagree with you stop expressing an opinion. But then, Ian Hislop has already expressed this better than I can.
No issue with anybody's opinion , but it is just that , an opinion , it isn't fact until it happens , overal I'll just be glad when ' remainers ' stop calling everybody else they disagree with bigots , it seems slightly hypocritical to do so , wouldnt you say
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 5:54 pm
Roy Haggerty
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 5480 Location: London
GUBRATS wrote:No issue with anybody's opinion , but it is just that , an opinion , it isn't fact until it happens , overal I'll just be glad when ' remainers ' stop calling everybody else they disagree with bigots , it seems slightly hypocritical to do so , wouldnt you say
It would be, and I'm not calling anyone a bigot here.
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. "
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:30 pm
Juan Cornetto
Player Coach
Joined: Aug 09 2008 Posts: 4934 Location: Living the Dream
Roy Haggerty wrote:No. Not a balance. Something like 50% of our trade is with EU countries, so our exports will become more expensive for customers, while the things we have to import will become even more expensive.
Meanwhile, no EU country has that sort of proportion of trade with us. Essentially, we'll take a hit on 50% of our trade, while nobody else (except Ireland) will take anything close to that sort of hit.
This is why the Brexit line about them being desperate for a trade deal was misleading. Of course their exporters will want a trade deal, but their overall economies won't need a trade deal to anything like the extent we will need one. That's a recipe to be stuffed, as we will be much more desperate than they will.
It's also worth noting that there are lots of firms in EU countries who would like very much to have the business which UK firms currently have. They're going to lobby their governments to put up tariffs so that they can force UK firms out of EU markets.
When I heard the idiots like Farage spinning their simplistic lies about foreigners desperate to give us a better deal, I was appalled. The whole reason we joined in the first place was because our economy was shrivelling outside the free trade area, because the French and German firms competing with UK firms were only to happy to erect the highest barriers possible!
As has been pointed out our exports to the EU represent 44% of our total exports not 50%. If you are going to round it you would be more accurate to say 40%! To try and diminish the importance of the UK market for EU exports is a mistake as we remain one of the largest markets for EU countries with some 800,000+ German cars being exported to the UK each year (one in 5 cars produced in Germany).
To put things in perspective German total exports represent 49.9% of their total GDP while UK total exports are 27.4% of GDP of which 12% of GDP is to the EU so it is only this 12% of our GDP which is at risk. No matter what happens we will continue to trade substantially with the EU even if we have access to the single market only under the WTO rules so you have to balance what we might lose to the EU because of tariffs against what we will undoubtably gain from the other 90% + of the world. Already there is a daily increasing list of countries that have offered trade talks.
In addition what those that are still promoting project fear are missing is that the WTO tariff average is around 3% with the cars being one of the highest at 10%. So if our currency has devalued by say 10% this gives a great advantage to our exports worldwide and in the case of the EU overcomes the problem of tariffs. Whereas EU exports to the UK will become more expensive because of the same currency changes plus the tariff on top! So there will be big pressure on EU governments from their business sectors to seek a friendly trade settlement or risk further unemployment in the already troubled EU.
The EU has serious upcoming problems from woefully under-capitalised banks, Italy heading the same way as Greece, another Euro crisis and of course unrest due to the immigration crisis. Add to this several leaders up for re-election next year so they do not need to deliberately self harm their economies by seeking some kind of revenge in the negotiations.
We have made the right decision for our future and it will take a few years to gain the real benefits but will be well worth it in the medium and long term. We have good arguments to come to a mutually beneficial agreement with our neighbours who must now realise they made a major mistake in blocking Cameron earlier in the year. Being unreasonable then has led to Brexit so to repeat this again will push the failing EU to an earlier demise. The leaders know they have to make big changes to the direction of the EU and they might as well start now.
Don't worry about avoiding temptation. As you grow older, it will avoid you! - Winston Churchill
Nobody knows how this will play out should our government actually be serious about getting us out of the EU. The precedents are irrelevant, it will be a bespoke negotiation. If I were negotiating my starting points would be to try cosying up the USA and be seen to do so; and also to say we don't care about tariffs and the single market so long as we can control our borders, etc. If a few exporters have to fill in a few forms and even pay 2 per cent tariffs then what's the big deal - that's the historic position and what they have to do when exporting elsewhere? Will the other EU member states want to put all their exporters to the same trouble as they see it? I think not. If they do, so be it and will a bit of luck it may put a few off selling their wares here.
Mintball wrote:You might find this of interest: it mentions tariffs and the WTO – and more.
Nobody knows how this will play out should our government actually be serious about getting us out of the EU. The precedents are irrelevant, it will be a bespoke negotiation. If I were negotiating my starting points would be to try cosying up the USA and be seen to do so; and also to say we don't care about tariffs and the single market so long as we can control our borders, etc. If a few exporters have to fill in a few forms and even pay 2 per cent tariffs then what's the big deal - that's the historic position and what they have to do when exporting elsewhere? Will the other EU member states want to put all their exporters to the same trouble as they see it? I think not. If they do, so be it and will a bit of luck it may put a few off selling their wares here.
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:08 pm
Ajw71
Player Coach
Joined: Feb 23 2006 Posts: 1978
Don't know why people are so concerned about life outside the EU.
The EU has just lost its second biggest net contributor, other countries will be clamouring to hold similar referendums to the one we have just had. More and more countries will leave. The whole institution will come crashing down. There will be no EU in 15 years.
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:14 pm
Roy Haggerty
International Chairman
Joined: Dec 22 2001 Posts: 5480 Location: London
Ajw71 wrote:Don't know why people are so concerned about life outside the EU.
The EU has just lost its second biggest net contributor, other countries will be clamouring to hold similar referendums to the one we have just had. More and more countries will leave. The whole institution will come crashing down. There will be no EU in 15 years.
Once again, it's important we don't allow groundless assertions of fantasy continue to replace what we used to know as "truth". There was enough of that in the campaign. None of what you describe will come true. It was just another UKIP delusion, knowing or otherwise.
The EU will be there in 15 years. There isn't another country in Europe with such a toxic press owned by right-wing millionaires which has pumped out so many lies about the EU for so long.
Ajw71 wrote:Don't know why people are so concerned about life outside the EU.
The EU has just lost its second biggest net contributor, other countries will be clamouring to hold similar referendums to the one we have just had. More and more countries will leave. The whole institution will come crashing down. There will be no EU in 15 years.
Once again, it's important we don't allow groundless assertions of fantasy continue to replace what we used to know as "truth". There was enough of that in the campaign. None of what you describe will come true. It was just another UKIP delusion, knowing or otherwise.
The EU will be there in 15 years. There isn't another country in Europe with such a toxic press owned by right-wing millionaires which has pumped out so many lies about the EU for so long.
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. "
Post subject: Re: Will Brexit Be Blamed For Any Coming Economic Crisis?
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:27 pm
Ajw71
Player Coach
Joined: Feb 23 2006 Posts: 1978
Roy Haggerty wrote:Once again, it's important we don't allow groundless assertions of fantasy continue to replace what we used to know as "truth". There was enough of that in the campaign. None of what you describe will come true. It was just another UKIP delusion, knowing or otherwise.
The EU will be there in 15 years. There isn't another country in Europe with such a toxic press owned by right-wing millionaires which has pumped out so many lies about the EU for so long.
As we both don't appear to have time machines your claim that the EU will still be in existence in 15 years can just as easily be described as 'fantasy'.
Roy Haggerty wrote:Once again, it's important we don't allow groundless assertions of fantasy continue to replace what we used to know as "truth". There was enough of that in the campaign. None of what you describe will come true. It was just another UKIP delusion, knowing or otherwise.
The EU will be there in 15 years. There isn't another country in Europe with such a toxic press owned by right-wing millionaires which has pumped out so many lies about the EU for so long.
As we both don't appear to have time machines your claim that the EU will still be in existence in 15 years can just as easily be described as 'fantasy'.
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