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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:57 am 
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El Barbudo wrote:That being the case, you're not actually in favour of parliamentary democracy.

As most people don't have a clue about the EU, and can't be @rsed to find out the facts, I don't see how a referendum would be much use except as a political stunt for Cameron to fob-off the UKIP tendency in his party.

Our entire constitution (monarchy, commons, lords, supreme court, etc, etc) has come about over centuries without any referenda, so why is this issue any different?


Maybe I was mistaken but did we not have a referendum re the EEC before?

What are we going to have about independence in Scotland?

I would suggest some issues are bigger than letting a skewed parliament make up decide.






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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:19 am 
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Sal Paradise wrote:What are we going to have about independence in Scotland?


You are not going to have anything :lol:






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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:43 am 
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Lord Elpers wrote: ... Our huge trade deficit with the EU together with the cost of membership produces an unconvincing argument for staying in. (46bn GBP deficit with EU in 2011 ...17.1bn surplus with rest of world)
...

Ignoring your erroneous stats, you are saying that because we have a trade deficit we should cut off (or, at the very least, create massive tariff problems with and hugely reduce trade with) our largest customer?
You have also ignored the fact that the UK has run a balance of trade deficit in goods for decades now ... should we therefore withdraw from the world as well as the EU? Of course not.

Lord Elpers wrote: ... My own view is to try and win back some powers that give some benefit to our trade but I am at present open minded as to staying in or leaving. I would like to see the full facts.

We need the EU to address the regulation of trade in services ... as it did so successfully with the regulations around trade in goods.
This is vital for the UK, otherwise we will see Frankfurt becoming the first-choice supplier of financial and other services for the Eurozone, taking business from the City of London.
If the UK is not at the heart of that transformation, the UK will be much worse-off over time.

CAP needs to be addressed, yet again,
Also, there may be areas of EU law where subsidiarity needs to be considered instead (see the other thread about federalism and subsidiarity).
But these are ongoing business, none are reasons for throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Most of the facts are out there, freely available, no-one is stopping you finding them.
Mind you, I haven't noticed your confessed lack of factual knowledge stopping you from having a vociferous opinion.

Lord Elpers wrote: ... However my guess is that the real economic plus or minus to our membership is very small (UK exports to the EU are equivalent to less than 8.7% of UK GDP much less than the rest of the world (10%)) and talk of an economic disaster if we leave are just scare stories. Under Article 50, the EU is legally required to negotiate "free and fair trade" with non-EU countries, so we would continue to have access to the EU markets, just like other countries. The EU would not want a trade war with the UK, if we were outside the single market as they have much more to lose than we.

The EU (the world's largest economy) negotiates with nations and trade areas and has vastly far more clout with them than the UK alone could have.
The UKs trade with the rest of the world will be significantly affected by this, whether we like it or not, and whether we remain in or opt-out of the EU, simply as a result of the EUs power.
You have taken a very simplistic view of trade in goods, for example ignoring the tariffs that would be imposed upon the UK's goods exports into the EU.
You have also ignored the massive impact on the UKs trade in financial and other services that would (not "could" but "would" occure) if the UK was outside the EU.
You state that the EU has more to lose than we have ... this is a skewed view ... we would risk nearly half our exports (e.g. we are nowadays net exporters of cars ... where are the jobs going to come from to replace that trade?), whereas the loss to the EU would be borne collectively by 26 states with no individual state having to bear more than a fraction of the impact that we would suffer.
The repercussions would take many, many decades to overcome, if indeed they ever could be.
Not only that, but we must not ignore the enormous elephant in the room ... i.e. the huge loss of geopolitical clout that the UK would sustain if it left the EU ... just as an example, the UN security council is already starting to shift inexorably to the BRICs and, if we are not in the EU (which can retain influence there), we will be reduced to the level of a puppet state dancing on US strings.






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Socialism without freedom is slavery and brutality.

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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:55 am 
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Sal Paradise wrote:Maybe I was mistaken but did we not have a referendum re the EEC before?

We did, that one was a political trick, as is this one.
But as you sound to be in favour, can you say why we need another?
Shall we have one every time a constitutional change occurs?
e.g. Should we have had one in 2009 when the House of Lords ceased to be the highest court in the land?

Sal Paradise wrote:What are we going to have about independence in Scotland?

My vote would be for a federal UK (see the Federalism vs Subsidiarity thread, esp. the bit about The West Lothian Question)

Sal Paradise wrote:I would suggest some issues are bigger than letting a skewed parliament make up decide.

Judging by the comments I see and hear from the general public, those issues are not generally understood.






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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:39 am 
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cod'ead wrote:So why propose a referendum?


why not? if this is such a big deal which will mean the collapse of ukplc (i'm sure their was similar nonsense spouted by the tories when the spectre of the minimum wage raised it's head), plunging untold millions into despair while still lining the pockets of the 'privileged few', then surely asking us what we want is the least they can do.
every 4/5 years we allow members of society who are 1 step away from needing to be watered every day put a little x in a box to elect some shyster who thinks the public should pay for her husband to watch porn or have his moat cleaned. so, why not have a referendum and let the people speak?






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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:52 am 
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samwire wrote:why not? if this is such a big deal which will mean the collapse of ukplc (i'm sure their was similar nonsense spouted by the tories when the spectre of the minimum wage raised it's head), plunging untold millions into despair while still lining the pockets of the 'privileged few', then surely asking us what we want is the least they can do.
every 4/5 years we allow members of society who are 1 step away from needing to be watered every day put a little x in a box to elect some shyster who thinks the public should pay for her husband to watch porn or have his moat cleaned. so, why not have a referendum and let the people speak?

"Why not?" is a bit feeble.
Which areas of decision would you have referenda for and which areas would you not have them for?






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Socialism without freedom is slavery and brutality.

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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:34 pm 
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El Barbudo wrote:"Why not?" is a bit feeble.
Which areas of decision would you have referenda for and which areas would you not have them for?

"why" is equally as feeble.
me? i couldn't care less if we have a referendum or not. i'd wager my life won't alter to any great extent with either outcome. it does seem odd that people don't want the public to have a say on something they claim has the potential to change the economic status of the country for the worse. for ever. i'd have thought it's just the sort of thing the people should have a say on. giving the masses the chance to vote. madness eh?






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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:41 pm 
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The masses get a chance to vote at least every 5 years.

I think there are certain big decisions where a referendum is the right thing to do, like with Scottish independence. But there are also certain big decisions which are simply too complicated to be put to a referendum. The EU is one of those in my opinion.

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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:50 pm 
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El Barbudo wrote:Ignoring your erroneous stats, you are saying that because we have a trade deficit we should cut off (or, at the very least, create massive tariff problems with and hugely reduce trade with) our largest customer? .


Are you saying you do not agreed with the stats and if so please state what you think they should be?

I did not say we should cut off from selling to the EU. Why do you see things as just black and white? There will not be massive tarriff problems this is pure scare stuff.

El Barbudo wrote:You have also ignored the fact that the UK has run a balance of trade deficit in goods for decades now ... should we therefore withdraw from the world as well as the EU? Of course not..


That we have run a trade deficit with the EU is hardly a good reason for accepting the status quo. We have a trade surplus with the rest of the world and do not have to pay a huge annual contribution for this trade as we do for the EU.

El Barbudo wrote:Most of the facts are out there, freely available, no-one is stopping you finding them.
Mind you, I haven't noticed your confessed lack of factual knowledge stopping you from having a vociferous opinion..


I am quite sure the full facts are not fully in the public domain yet. As you have also expressed a vociferous opinion, but on many more occassions than I, perhaps you could answer the following question. What is the net monetary benefit p.a. to the UK of current EU membership?


El Barbudo wrote:The EU (the world's largest economy) negotiates with nations and trade areas and has vastly far more clout with them than the UK alone could have.
The UKs trade with the rest of the world will be significantly affected by this, whether we like it or not, and whether we remain in or opt-out of the EU, simply as a result of the EUs power..


Indeed. But the EU's clout will also diminish considerably if we were to leave. I do not share your concerns that we cannot negotiate free trade terms on our own or through the WTO.

El Barbudo wrote:You have taken a very simplistic view of trade in goods, for example ignoring the tariffs that would be imposed upon the UK's goods exports into the EU..


I would say you are taking a very unrealistic view with added scare stuff in suggesting we would incurr trade tarriffs with the EU were we to leave.

El Barbudo wrote:You have also ignored the massive impact on the UKs trade in financial and other services that would (not "could" but "would" occure) if the UK was outside the EU..


Again your are overstating these risks.

El Barbudo wrote:You state that the EU has more to lose than we have ... this is a skewed view ... we would risk nearly half our exports (e.g. we are nowadays net exporters of cars ... whereare the jobs going to come from to replace that trade?), whereas the loss to the EU would be borne collectively by 26 states with no individual state having to bear more than a fraction of the impact that we would suffer..


This is not a skewed view. We are one of the major net contributors to the EU and run very large trading deficit and our texports to the EU has been in decline for some time. It is arrant nonsense to suggest there would be any form of a trade war if we leave. They need access to our markets as much as we do to theirs.

El Barbudo wrote:The repercussions would take many, many decades to overcome, if indeed they ever could be. .


Equally to could say the benefits of leaving could bring more positive for the UK than negative.

El Barbudo wrote:Not only that, but we must not ignore the enormous elephant in the room ... i.e. the huge loss of geopolitical clout that the UK would sustain if it left the EU ... just as an example, the UN security council is already starting to shift inexorably to the BRICs and, if we are not in the EU (which can retain influence there), we will be reduced to the level of a puppet state dancing on US strings.


Sorry but this is also nonsense. We are on our own one of the worlds leading economies with enormous influence and proven ability.

I suggest you try and listen to all of Mr Cameron's speech and questions in Davros this morning and you will see his plans for the G8 this year.

His stated objective is to improve the UK's terms within the EU as the EU begins to make big changes because of the Euro problems. He has not made a case for leaving the EU. Treaties will be changed and our governments job is to protect our interests. If we can improve and preserve our position then there will be strong arguments to remain in. What is wrong with that? The PM has also stated his intention to seek changes for the good of the whole EU and so far has brought encouraging responses from other members.

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 Post subject: Re: The Tories & Europe
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:28 pm 
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Lord Elpers wrote:There will not be massive tarriff problems this is pure scare stuff.


Lord Elpers wrote:I would say you are taking a very unrealistic view with added scare stuff in suggesting we would incurr trade tarriffs with the EU were we to leave.

It's clear from these two comments that you don't understand a fundamental aspect or trading within the EU compared to trading without.

Currently there is no duty paid on goods moved between the UK and any other EU nation. Should we leave the EU, this would no longer be the case - i.e. a duty tariff would apply to all goods entering and leaving the UK just as it does presently with all other non-EU countries. At a stroke this would add somewhere between 2 and 10% to the price of all these goods, with the obvious effect of increasing price inflation in the UK (increased cost of imports) and reducing the competitiveness of our exporters.

It would also complicate VAT to a lesser extent.

In addition to the direct effect on prices, the additional cost and complexity will be a disincentive to overseas companies who use the UK as their bridgehead into Europe. And as we have seen, other EU countries will be only too happy to welcome these companies instead.

None of this is 'scare stuff'. It's just factual information that anti-EU types are either ignorant of or, more likely, deliberately ignoring.






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