WWW.RLFANS.COM :: View topic - Brexit Anyone? (part 4)

bren2k wrote:In some ways, I'm glad that Johnson's shot at the job he's always wanted, comes at a time when he is doomed to fail; he won't get the concessions from the EU that he is claiming, he won't get a re-hashed version of May's deal through Parliament, and Parliament won't allow no deal, despite the best efforts of 150,000 Daily Mail reading golf club chairmen - so either way, he's screwed.

There is now a growing likelihood that enough Tory MP's will put the brakes on and bring down the Government, which is a delicious prospect; Johnson as both the shortest serving PM in UK history, and the man who destroyed the Tories as an electoral prospect for a generation.

Bullseye wrote:Can’t see any party winning an overall majority in the current climate. It’s ironic that as parties themselves become more polarised to keep their most vocal supporters happy that they simultaneously alienate the support they need to form a majority.

Bullseye wrote:PR often leads to coalition government so smaller parties can have more of an influence, for good or bad, It also means governments can fall pretty quickly too when someone pulls out. Can’t see much of a majority for a no deal Brexit in the current parliament or any future one under PR. It’s just too divisive an issue, especially for the Conservatives who’ve struggled with Europe for nearly 50 years. PR if anything leads to policies being watered down in order to seek a compromise that will form a government.

Have any Labour MPs (apart from Hoey) said they’d support the Government in the event that there was a vote of no confidence triggered after a desire to go for no deal? I think the best the Government could hope for would be an abstention or two, and even then it’s a brave Labour MP that abstains on a vote of no confidence.

wrencat1873 wrote:You're right about not too many Labour MP's voting with the government in a no confidence vote but, even though a few Tories have said that they would do it, its equally difficult to imagine any Tories bringing their own government down.

Right now a GE looks like it may happen but, the uncertainty over Brexit is going to run and run and with the ecconomy virtually flat lining already, the short term, at best, looks difficult.

It makes my blood boil when the hard Brexit brigade trivialise the fall out from a potential "no deal" Brexit as "there may a period of adjustment", while still being in utter denial that we could go from flat line to another recession.

IR80 wrote:Recession would be a given with Corbyn anywhere near power, that is for sure.

wrencat1873 wrote:Labour has always borrowed heavily to fund public services etc and Corbyn does have some rather grand plans on re-nationalisation etc.

Author:	wrencat1873 [ Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:33 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
bren2k wrote:In some ways, I'm glad that Johnson's shot at the job he's always wanted, comes at a time when he is doomed to fail; he won't get the concessions from the EU that he is claiming, he won't get a re-hashed version of May's deal through Parliament, and Parliament won't allow no deal, despite the best efforts of 150,000 Daily Mail reading golf club chairmen - so either way, he's screwed. There is now a growing likelihood that enough Tory MP's will put the brakes on and bring down the Government, which is a delicious prospect; Johnson as both the shortest serving PM in UK history, and the man who destroyed the Tories as an electoral prospect for a generation. That sounds like the best political synopsis of the last century. Mrs May could well have left a little something around the rim of the poisoned chalice just to help things along The greedy bar stewards are still promising tax cuts for those on over 50k, rather than reinstate some of the mental health and youth services that have been obliterated during the 10+ years of Tory austerity. Just one cautionary note though, I believe that when the next election finally comes around, I'm not sure that Corbyn will be the many in charge. There looks certain to be a coalition running the country, granted it will be different the Tory - DUP partnership that we have now but, we appear to be on the cusp of a whole new politics in the UK. Maybe something good will come out of the referendum after all ?

Author:	Bullseye [ Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:42 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Can’t see any party winning an overall majority in the current climate. It’s ironic that as parties themselves become more polarised to keep their most vocal supporters happy that they simultaneously alienate the support they need to form a majority.

Author:	IR80 [ Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:55 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Bullseye wrote:Can’t see any party winning an overall majority in the current climate. It’s ironic that as parties themselves become more polarised to keep their most vocal supporters happy that they simultaneously alienate the support they need to form a majority. As many have said, the political landscape is changing. I can see proportional representation within 10 years.

Author:	Bullseye [ Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:26 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
PR often leads to coalition government so smaller parties can have more of an influence, for good or bad, It also means governments can fall pretty quickly too when someone pulls out. Can’t see much of a majority for a no deal Brexit in the current parliament or any future one under PR. It’s just too divisive an issue, especially for the Conservatives who’ve struggled with Europe for nearly 50 years. PR if anything leads to policies being watered down in order to seek a compromise that will form a government. Have any Labour MPs (apart from Hoey) said they’d support the Government in the event that there was a vote of no confidence triggered after a desire to go for no deal? I think the best the Government could hope for would be an abstention or two, and even then it’s a brave Labour MP that abstains on a vote of no confidence.

Author:	wrencat1873 [ Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:38 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
Bullseye wrote:PR often leads to coalition government so smaller parties can have more of an influence, for good or bad, It also means governments can fall pretty quickly too when someone pulls out. Can’t see much of a majority for a no deal Brexit in the current parliament or any future one under PR. It’s just too divisive an issue, especially for the Conservatives who’ve struggled with Europe for nearly 50 years. PR if anything leads to policies being watered down in order to seek a compromise that will form a government. Have any Labour MPs (apart from Hoey) said they’d support the Government in the event that there was a vote of no confidence triggered after a desire to go for no deal? I think the best the Government could hope for would be an abstention or two, and even then it’s a brave Labour MP that abstains on a vote of no confidence. You're right about not too many Labour MP's voting with the government in a no confidence vote but, even though a few Tories have said that they would do it, its equally difficult to imagine any Tories bringing their own government down. Right now a GE looks like it may happen but, the uncertainty over Brexit is going to run and run and with the ecconomy virtually flat lining already, the short term, at best, looks difficult. It makes my blood boil when the hard Brexit brigade trivialise the fall out from a potential "no deal" Brexit as "there may a period of adjustment", while still being in utter denial that we could go from flat line to another recession.

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Author:	IR80 [ Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:53 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
wrencat1873 wrote:You're right about not too many Labour MP's voting with the government in a no confidence vote but, even though a few Tories have said that they would do it, its equally difficult to imagine any Tories bringing their own government down. Right now a GE looks like it may happen but, the uncertainty over Brexit is going to run and run and with the ecconomy virtually flat lining already, the short term, at best, looks difficult. It makes my blood boil when the hard Brexit brigade trivialise the fall out from a potential "no deal" Brexit as "there may a period of adjustment", while still being in utter denial that we could go from flat line to another recession. Recession would be a given with Corbyn anywhere near power, that is for sure.

Author:	wrencat1873 [ Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
IR80 wrote:Recession would be a given with Corbyn anywhere near power, that is for sure. He's not at the helm currently and we're getting pretty close ! I think that Corbyn would actually help spark the ecconomy. The problem would that the growth would come from substantial borrowing, which isn't sustainable. Labour has always borrowed heavily to fund public services etc and Corbyn does have some rather grand plans on re-nationalisation etc. Of course, these companies would become "assets of the state" but, as usual, borrowing is always likely to cause problems eventually. The Tories borrowed heavily when they took a stake in the banks, so it's not an exclusively left wing process but, Labour do have a habit of spending rather than paying down debt. The balance is somewhere between Corbyn's aspirations and the current Tory austerity, something which has caused massive social issues. Mental health and crime are out of control but, Boris wants tax cuts for his "mates" or, more accurately, for Tory party members, who may just vote him in as Prime Minister Not too many people like Hunt, especially in the NHS but, he's somewhat more level headed than the PM elect, who, as Bren mentioned previously, could have the shortest time at no 10. It looks nailed on that he will break the record for the shortest term in office by a Conservative.

Author:	tigertot [ Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:46 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4)
IR80 wrote:Recession would be a given with Corbyn anywhere near power, that is for sure. Obviously, history shows how much better your lords & masters are at managing the economy. The same genius minds as Blond & Bland who are going to cut taxes for the rich but increase spending.

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